Deal Sniper

Kemp Alderman

CF · Triple-A · 24.0y · #530 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

64 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

17 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Kemp Alderman RC… at $22.98. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Kemp Alderman scores 64 out of 100 (#530 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (32.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    32.1% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power: above average

    .206 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 76% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Double-A to Triple-A.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Speed: above average

    16 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 61% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (32.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Draft 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Draft 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto

The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $22.98 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

17 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 17 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 11 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Kemp Alderman RC AUTO ROOKIE Miami Marlins Top Prospect

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $22.98

    modeled ~$15.50

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Draft KEMP ALDERMAN Miami Marlins Rookie Prospect 1st Auto SP

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 11d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $25.48

    modeled ~$15.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Kemp Alderman #CDA-KA Auto 19yg

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $33.65

    modeled ~$15.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Kemp Alderman #CDA-KA Auto pe8

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $33.99

    modeled ~$15.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Kemp Alderman #CDA-KA Auto yj0

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $34.26

    modeled ~$15.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Kemp Alderman #CDA-KA Auto 17xm

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $40.63

    modeled ~$15.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Kemp Alderman, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $11.49–$24.13, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $22.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $22.98 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $43.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $43.99 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +91%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $79.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $79.99 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +82%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 49 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    39

    well below · better than 14% at his level

    32.1% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    57

    above average · better than 76% at his level

    .206 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    46

    below average · better than 34% at his level

    9.1% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    53

    above average · better than 61% at his level

    16 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    55

    above average · better than 68% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .824 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 46th percentile of the cohort, production at the 68th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 83% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 46 and his production sits at 68, a gap of -22. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 17th percentile.

Will he get there?

Strong chance 7.2 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.824 OPS in 364 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

364

AVG

.266

OBP

.352

SLG

.472

OPS

.824

better than 68%

HR

18

SB

10

BB%

9.1

K%

32.1

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .784 to .824 after moving up to Triple-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.784▲.824

Power

.165▲.206

Walks

7.5%▲9.1%

Strikeouts

22.5%▲32.1%

Last season, 454 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 11 not shown above
Listings
17

17 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$22.98
Median ask
$42.31
Cheapest 1st auto
$22.98
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$43.99

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 11 cards

  • $43.992023 BOWMAN KEMP ALDERMAN CHROME REFRACTOR 1st AUTO #166/499NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $55.492023 Bowman Draft Chrome - Kemp Alderman 1st Auto Refractor /499NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $79.99Kemp Alderman 2023 Bowman Draft 1st HTA Choice Refractor Auto /150! MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $88.912023 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Kemp Alderman #CDA-KA PSA 9 MINT Auto 9fcNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $299.99Kemp Alderman Auto Bowman 1st Draft Blue Aqua /199 PSA 10 Refractor OFFERNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $305.98KEMP ALDERMAN 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST SPARKLE AUTO RC /71 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME PROSPECT GOLD SHIMMER KEMP ALDERMAN 45/50 PSA 9 AUTO 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft Chrome Kemp Alderman #BDC-123 SuperFractor /1 (RC) AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Signed 2023 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Refractor Kemp Alderman #BDC-123 Miami Auto!NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome Kemp Alderman Class of '23 AUTO AUTOGRAPH RC GRADED BGS 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Draft | Kemp Alderman | 1st Bowman Chrome Auto | MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now