Luke Waddell
SS · Gwinnett Stripers · Triple-A · 28.0y · #5777 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
22 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
31 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Luke Waddell scores 22 out of 100 (#5777 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: premium position — SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 12 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Old for the level
-2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than only 30% of the players there.
Speed: below average
0 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
OPS slipping
.704 last season to .633 this one.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
SS is a position the hobby pays up for; 28.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
12 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LW — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 16 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 16 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-LW
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 16 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /25 at $16.31 costs 3.51× base, and print run alone suggests 3.00×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
31 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 31 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 25 are under "The whole live market".
2022 Bowman - 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Luke Waddell #CPA-LW Orange Shimmer /25
/25 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 79d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$16.31
no sold price
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Chrome Luke Waddell Purple 1st Bowman Auto RC /250 Braves BGS 9.5/10
/250 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 492d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
👉Luke Waddell 2022 1st Bowman Chrome PURPLE On-Card RC Auto! 241/250! 🔥
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 736d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.79
modeled ~$4.01
LOTTERY
2022 Bowman Luke Waddell 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Purple Refractor #/250 Braves
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 27d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$8.50
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2022 Bowman Luke Waddell Chrome Auto 1st CPA-LW Braves PSA 9 Mint Atlanta Braves
base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 370d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$26.58
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Luke Waddell 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto Atlanta Braves /499 SP RC
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 823d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.99
modeled ~$10.50
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.65, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.65 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- SapphireTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.97, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.97 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +222%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +7%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $28.82, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $28.82 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +80%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.79, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.79 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -59%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Shimmer /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $16.31, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $16.31 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +38%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 45 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 45 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
47
average · better than 38% at his level
25.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
44
below average · better than 26% at his level
.100 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
44
below average · better than 27% at his level
8.3% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
43
below average · better than 23% at his level · the result, not a skill
.633 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
45
below average · better than 30% at his level · context, not a skill
-2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 30th percentile of the cohort, production at the 23th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 30 and his production sits at 23, a gap of +7. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 58th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
12
AVG
.200
OBP
.333
SLG
.300
OPS
.633
better than 23%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
8.3
K%
25.0
Is this player getting better?
Down from .704 to .633 OPS this season.
Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.704▼.633
Power
.068▲.100
Walks
12.1%▼8.3%
Strikeouts
12.4%▲25.0%
Last season, 380 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market31 listed · 31 eBay-verified · 25 not shown above
- Listings
- 31
- Lowest seen
- $4.65
- Median ask
- $15.99
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.65
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $11.79
31 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 25 cards
- $16.94Luke Waddell 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto Atlanta Braves /499LOTTERY
- $31.482022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Luke Waddell #CPA-LW PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 10 NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $40.992022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Green Shimmer Refractor /99 Luke Waddell Auto PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Luke Waddell Prospect Autograph SGC 9.5 w/10 AUTO NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $4.69Luke Waddell 2022 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Bowman #CPA-LW Atlanta Braves C1LOTTERY
- $5.992022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Luke Waddell Braves Prospect CPA-LW AutographLOTTERY
- $5.99Luke Waddell 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Braves CPA-LWLOTTERY
- $6.50Luke Waddell - 2022 Bowman Chrome Autograph - 1st Bowman ON-CARD AUTOLOTTERY
- $10.24Luke Waddell - 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Rookie Auto RC - ATLANTA BRAVES STARLOTTERY
- $13.99LUKE WADDELL 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-LWLOTTERY
- $14.97LUKE WADDELL 2022 Bowman Sapphire Prospect Autograph #BSPA-LW AUTO 1st RC!LOTTERY
- $16.242022 Bowman Chrome Luke Waddell Autograph 1st Auto Atlanta Braves CPA-LW MLBLOTTERY
- $20.002022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Luke Waddell!🔥 HOT! Braves Base AutoLOTTERY
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Luke Waddell 1st Auto #CPA-LW BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Luke Waddell 2022 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Bowman #CPA-LW Atlanta Braves NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Luke Waddell 1st Prospect On Card Auto Atlanta BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Luke Waddell Base Auto Autograph Signed 1st Rookie Card RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Luke Waddell 2022 Bowman Chrome 🔥 Auto 1st Bowman 🔥 Atlanta Braves ProspectNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 Luke Waddell Bowman Chrome Sapphire 1st Bowman Auto!NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2022 1st Bowman Chrome Sapphire Luke Waddell Auto NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $4.65Luke Waddell 2022 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Bowman #CPA-LW Atlanta Braves C1LOTTERY
- —2022 Bowman Luke Waddell Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-LW BravesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $28.822022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 163/299 Luke Waddell Auto 0ko2NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $16.742022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 157/499 Luke Waddell #CPA-LW Auto 1n8aLOTTERY
- —2022 Bowman Chrome Luke Waddell Base Auto Autograph Signed 1st Rookie Card RCPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run