Ethan Conrad
CF · High-A · 22.0y · #5122 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
27 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
26 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Ethan Conrad… at $51. Player not there yet.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Ethan Conrad scores 27 out of 100 (#5122 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 8 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Power: well below
.000 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: above average
12.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 60% at his level.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
Little power for his level (8th percentile); CF is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
Listed at your price — $51.00
target is $57.74
Listed at your price — $45.99
target is $57.74
What could go wrong
Small sample
8 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 38 on the 20–80 scale (37.5% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-EC — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-EC
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Draft Ethan Conrad 1st Chrome Gold Refractor Auto /50 at $750, 51% over the $495 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
/50 at or under $495 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Evidence still thin
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
26 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 26 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 20 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Topps Bowman Draft Chrome Ethan Conrad 1st Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10
/499 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 12d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$455.99
modeled ~$45.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Chrome Draft Sapphire Ethan Conrad 1st Auto/199🔥PSA 10🔥LOW POP🔥
/199 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 8d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Ethan Conrad 1st Bowman Starter Kit - PSA 10 #/75, Auto, X Fractor, & Chrome
/75 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 13d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Draft Ethan Conrad 1st Chrome Auto Gold Wave Refractor /50 SGC 10/9
/50 · SGC 10 · listed 16d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Draft Ethan Conrad 1st Chrome Blue Wave Refractor Auto /150 Cubs
/150 · raw · condition not stated · auction · listed 6d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 90h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$187.98
modeled ~$23.50
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Topps 1st Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto Blue Wave Ethan Conrad /150
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 19d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$271.48
modeled ~$4.21
NEEDS EVIDENCE
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Ethan Conrad, just what the money can do today.
- Christian MooreRefractor · /499$45.94Watch
- Charles McAdoo/150$45.16Watch47% under fair value
- Pedro Ramírezbase$35.94Watch14% under fair value
Compared within $23.00–$48.29, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder9 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $45.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $45.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Sapphire RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $257.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $257.98 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +461%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $124.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $124.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -52%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $176.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $176.49 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +41%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $195.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $195.48 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +11%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $187.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $187.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -4%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $281.74, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $281.74 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +50%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $749.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $749.99 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +166%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Wave /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $1114.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $1114.95 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +49%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 43 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 43 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
38
well below · better than 11% at his level
37.5% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
36
well below · better than 8% at his level
.000 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
53
above average · better than 60% at his level
12.5% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 25% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
27
bottom of the scale · better than 1% at his level · the result, not a skill
.125 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 26th percentile of the cohort, production at the 1th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 88% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 26 and his production sits at 1, a gap of +25. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 88th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.9 / 10
- old for High-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
8
AVG
.000
OBP
.125
SLG
.000
OPS
.125
better than 1%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
12.5
K%
37.5
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market26 listed · 26 eBay-verified · 20 not shown above
- Listings
- 26
- Lowest seen
- $45.99
- Median ask
- $195.48
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $45.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $176.49
26 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.
The other 20 cards
- $334.952025 Bowman Draft Chrome Ethan Conrad 1st Bowman Blue Wave Refractor Auto /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Draft Ethan Conrad 1st Chrome Blue Wave Refractor Auto /150 CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $45.99Ethan Conrad 2025 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Prospect Autograph #CPA-EC (RC, AUTO)PASS
- $51.002025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Ethan Conrad #CPA-EC Auto Chicago CubsPASS
- $57.99ETHAN CONRAD 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH AUTO #CPA-EC CUBS Q1663PASS
- $255.99ETHAN CONRAD 2025 BOWMAN DRAFT CHROME PROSPECT AUTO RC SP PSA 10/10 POP 1 BANEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Draft Ethan Conrad #CPA-EC Auto Chrome Mojo Refractor /150 CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $45.99Ethan Conrad Auto 2025 Bowman Draft #CPA-EC Chrome Prospect AutographsPASS
- $1114.952025 Bowman 1st Ethan Conrad Auto Chrome Prospect Orange Wave 15/25 #CPA-ECPASS
- $749.992025 Bowman Draft Ethan Conrad 1st Chrome Gold Refractor Auto /50PASS
- $281.74Ethan Conrad 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Green Refractor Auto /99 #CPA-EC CubsPASS
- $195.482025 Bowman Draft | Ethan Conrad | 1st Bowman Blue Wave Auto /150 | CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $68.492025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Ethan Conrad #CPA-EC Auto 1vz8PASS
- $176.49Ethan Conrad 2025 Bowman Draft Sapphire AUTO 1st Bowman /199 #BDC-17 CubsPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Ethan Conrad 1st Chrome Aqua Lava Auto /199 Chicago CubsPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Ethan Conrad 1st Chrome Aqua Lava Auto /199 Chicago CubsPASS
- $257.982025 Bowman Chrome Draft Sapphire Green Refractor 1st Auto Ethan Conrad CubsPASS
- $124.992025 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Ethan Conrad #CPA-EC Auto 1vz8PASS
- —Ethan Conrad /71 Auto Bowman 2025 Cubs 1stPASS
- —2025 Bowman Draft Ethan Conrad 1st Green Lava Auto /99 Chicago CubsPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run