Deal Sniper

Pablo Aliendo

C · Double-A · 25.0y · #4928 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

29 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

17 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Pablo Aliendo scores 29 out of 100 (#4928 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: above average — .182 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 72% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (34.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Contact: well below

    34.1% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: above average

    .182 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 72% at his level.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    C sells at a discount at equal production; 25.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (34.1% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-PA — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 11 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 11 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-PA

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 11 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

17 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 17 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 11 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PABLO ALIENDO

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 193d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $4.78

    modeled ~$5.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman PABLO ALIENDO Chicago Cubs 1st Chrome Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 18d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.23

    modeled ~$5.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • PABLO ALIENDO 2022 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Atomic Refractor Auto /100 Cubs

    /100 · raw · condition not stated · listed 83d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.27

    no sold price

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman PABLO ALIENDO Chicago Cubs 1st Chrome Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1335d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 58h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.31

    modeled ~$5.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Pablo Aliendo 1st Bowman Autograph Auto #CPA-PA

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 524d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $7.99

    modeled ~$5.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Pablo Aliendo 1st Bowman On Card Auto Autograph

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 830d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $7.99

    modeled ~$5.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.78 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $14.72, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $14.72 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +208%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $17.20, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $17.20 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +17%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.27, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $5.27 live
    Scarcity
    100 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -69%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 44 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 44 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    39

    well below · better than 14% at his level

    34.1% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    56

    above average · better than 72% at his level

    .182 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    40

    well below · better than 15% at his level

    5.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    41

    well below · better than 18% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    44

    below average · better than 26% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .624 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    48

    average · better than 42% at his level · context, not a skill

    -1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 30th percentile of the cohort, production at the 26th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 30 and his production sits at 26, a gap of +4. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 53th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.1 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • old for Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

123

AVG

.182

OBP

.260

SLG

.364

OPS

.624

better than 26%

HR

4

SB

0

BB%

5.7

K%

34.1

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market17 listed · 17 eBay-verified · 11 not shown above
Listings
17

17 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$4.78
Median ask
$9.95
Cheapest 1st auto
$4.78
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$5.27

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 11 cards

  • $8.992022 BOWMAN CHROME 1st AUTO - PABLO ALIENDO - #CPA-PA - CHICAGO CUBSPASS
  • $9.952022 Bowman Chrome 1st Pablo Aliendo Prospect Card #CPA-PA Auto Chicago CubsPASS
  • $10.102022 Bowman #CPA-PA Pablo Aliendo 1st Chrome Prospects Autograph AutoPASS
  • $13.99PABLO ALIENDO 2022 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-PAPASS
  • $14.722022 Bowman Chrome 1st Pablo Aliendo Refractor Auto /499 Cubs RCPASS
  • $17.202022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 119/299 Pablo Aliendo Auto pe8PASS
  • $17.97PABLO ALIENDO 2022 Bowman Chrome CPA-PA Auto 10 SGC 9 CHICAGO CUBSPASS
  • $25.98Pablo Aliendo 2022 Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor Auto /250 SGC Mint+ 9.5 & 10!PASS
  • $35.142022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor Pablo Aliendo PSA 9 MINT Auto 0x7qPASS
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Pablo Aliendo Rookie Auto #CPA-PAPASS
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Autograph Auto Pablo AliendoPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now