Jalvin Arias
CF · FCL Phillies · Rookie · 19.0y · #4450 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- LONG SHOT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
34 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
28 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is Jalvin Arias 2024 Bowman Chrome Blue… at $45.25. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Long-shot prospect, untested market.
Jalvin Arias scores 34 out of 100 (#4450 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: premium position — CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 92 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Contact: bottom of the scale
37.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
CF is a position the hobby pays up for; only 19.0 — years of runway.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
92 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 34 on the 20–80 scale (37.0% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JA — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 13 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 14 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-JA
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 13 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /150 at $3.98 costs 0.88× base, and print run alone suggests 1.50×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
28 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 28 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 22 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Refractor Mojo Jalvin Arias Auto 056/150
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$3.98
modeled ~$6.50
LOTTERY
CZ3-414 - 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto - Jalvin Arias #CPA-JA - 1st Bowman
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 17d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$4.50
modeled ~$8.50
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-JA
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 100d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$4.78
modeled ~$8.50
LOTTERY
Jalvin Arias 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JA Prospect AUTO 1st Bowman RC Phillies
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$6.49
modeled ~$8.50
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome - Jalvin Arias Prospect 1st Auto #CPA-JA Phillies Prospect
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 181d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$6.99
modeled ~$8.50
LOTTERY
Jalvin Arias 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JA 1st Prospect Auto Blue Refractor /150
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 14d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.99
modeled ~$62.00
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.50 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.00 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +144%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.50 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -23%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -6%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Reptilian Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.77, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.77 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +35%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mojo Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $3.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $3.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -63%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $20.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $20.99 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +427%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 40 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie
What he is good at
skills overall 40 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
34
bottom of the scale · better than 6% at his level
37.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
45
below average · better than 32% at his level
.076 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
40
well below · better than 15% at his level
9.8% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
39
well below · better than 14% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
32
bottom of the scale · better than 4% at his level · the result, not a skill
.454 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
51
average · better than 54% at his level · context, not a skill
0.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 17th percentile of the cohort, production at the 4th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 17 and his production sits at 4, a gap of +13. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 70th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.1 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 68% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production.
How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
92
AVG
.139
OBP
.239
SLG
.215
OPS
.454
better than 4%
HR
1
SB
0
BB%
9.8
K%
37.0
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market28 listed · 28 eBay-verified · 22 not shown above
- Listings
- 28
- Lowest live
- $3.98
- Median ask
- $9.12
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.50
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $7.99
28 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 22 cards
- $7.992024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias 1st Bowman Auto - Philadelphia PhilliesLOTTERY
- $8.502024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias Auto Speckle 133/299 1st Bowman Phillies LOTTERY
- $9.002024 Bowman Chrome 1st Jalvin Arias Auto Philadelphia PhilliesLOTTERY
- $9.24JALVIN ARIAS 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st RC Autograph Auto #CPA-JALOTTERY
- $10.772024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias 1st Reptilian Blue Refractor Auto #/150 PhilliesLOTTERY
- $11.002024 Topps 1st Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias /499 Auto - Philadelphia PhilliesLOTTERY
- $11.242024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-JALOTTERY
- $13.75JALVIN ARIAS 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Prospect RC - PACK FRESH!LOTTERY
- $20.99Jalvin Arias Auto 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JA Prospect Gold Refractor /50LOTTERY
- $35.692024 Bowman Chrome JALVIN ARIAS 1st Bowman Auto Gold Shimmer /50 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $45.25Jalvin Arias 2024 Bowman Chrome Blue Refractor 1st Prospect Auto #d /150 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $363.002024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto /25 PSA 10 Jalvin Arias RC Shimmer Orange NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome - Jalvin Arias 1st Auto Philadelphia Phillies #CPA-JANEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias 1st Reptilian Blue Refractor Auto #/150 PhilliesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Jalvin Arias 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JA Prospect AUTO 1st Bowman RC PhilliesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —JALVIN ARIAS 2024 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST SAPPHIRE TRUE GREEN AUTO /99NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias #CPA-JA HTA Choice Refractor Auto 32/150 1ST SSPNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias Phillies 1st Bowman Auto CPA-JANEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias 1st Bowman Rookie RC Auto PhilliesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome - Jalvin Arias /499 Chrome Refractor 1st Auto # CPA-JANEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome | Jalvin Arias | 1st Bowman Chrome Auto | PhilliesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Jalvin Arias 1st Auto Prospect #CPA-JA Phillies AutographNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run