Deal Sniper

Jared Serna

SS · Triple-A · 24.0y · #742 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

61 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

29 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna 1st Blue… at $30.98. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Jared Serna scores 61 out of 100 (#742 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

  • Contact: plus

    16.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 80% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Double-A to Triple-A.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Speed: above average

    26 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 77% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    SS is a position the hobby pays up for; 24.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /499 at $5.79 costs 0.89× base, and print run alone suggests 1.15×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

29 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 29 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 23 are under "The whole live market".

  • Jared Serna 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Refractor /499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $5.79

    modeled ~$15.27

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Jared Serna 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-JS Marlins

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 23d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.48

    modeled ~$9.75

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 1st 2024 Bowman Chrome CPA-JS AUTO JARED SERNA Rookie Card Yanks/Marlins

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 140d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $9.73

    modeled ~$9.75

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • JARED SERNA 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st RC Autograph Auto #CPA-JS Qty

    Red · raw · condition not stated · listed 548d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.24

    modeled ~$9.73

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • JARED SERNA 2024 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-JS

    Red · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 385d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $13.99

    modeled ~$9.73

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor 70/150 Jared Serna Auto 6fs

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $15.88

    modeled ~$16.15

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • RedTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.48 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Red Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.79, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $5.79 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -11%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $19.17, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $19.17 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +231%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Lunar Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $15.94, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $15.94 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -17%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $15.88, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $15.88 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -0%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

7 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 53 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level

    16.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    49

    average · better than 45% at his level

    .140 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level

    10.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    57

    above average · better than 77% at his level

    26 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .659 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 62th percentile of the cohort, production at the 29th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 94% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 62 and his production sits at 29, a gap of +33. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 94th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.5 / 10

  • already at Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

320

AVG

.216

OBP

.303

SLG

.356

OPS

.659

better than 29%

HR

10

SB

14

BB%

10.0

K%

16.6

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .582 to .659 after moving up to Triple-A. That is the shape of a breakout.

Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.582▲.659

Power

.054▲.140

Walks

9.6%→10.0%

Strikeouts

15.8%→16.6%

Last season, 437 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market29 listed · 29 eBay-verified · 23 not shown above
Listings
29

29 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$5.79
Median ask
$17.83
Cheapest 1st auto
$5.79
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$5.79

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 23 cards

  • $15.942024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna 1st Blue Lunar Glow Refractor Auto /150 #CPA-JSLOTTERY
  • $16.492024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna 1st Bowman Chrome AutoLOTTERY
  • $19.172024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Jared Serna #CPA-JS Auto 19feLOTTERY
  • $28.98AUTO #'d/150 PSA 9 🔥 JARED SERNA SP 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Blue Lunar RefractorNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $30.982024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna 1st Blue Lunar Glow Refractor Auto /150 #CPA-JSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $33.79PSA 9 - 2024 Bowman Chrome Blue Lunar Refractor 1st Auto /150 - Jared SernaNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $35.492024 Bowman Chrome - Jared Serna 1st Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $40.892024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Jared Serna #CPA-JS SGC 9.5 Mint+ Auto 1lt1NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $43.502024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna Auto 1st Bowman Yankees #CPA-JS SGC 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $103.572024 Bowman Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor /150 Jared Serna Auto 1f5hNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Jared Serna Chrome Blue Refractor Auto #043/150 PSA 10 YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna 1st Bowman Rookie Auto #CPA-JS YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna Auto Purple Refractor /250 Yankees CPA-JS 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna Auto Yankees 1st Bowman #CPA-JSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —JARED SERNA 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Rookie RC Autograph Auto #CPA-JS YankeesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospect Autographs Jared Serna #CPA-JS 1st AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna 1st Auto Yankees #CPA-JSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —JARED SERNA 2024 Bowman Chrome Prospects 1st Bowman AUTO #CPA-JSNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Jared Serna 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RC Prospect CPA-JS NYYNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Jared Serna Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-JS Yankees (Marlins)NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome Jared Serna 1st Bowman Auto Yankees ProspectNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman - Chrome Prospect Auto Jared Serna #CPA-JS Speckled /299 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Jared Serna Blue Lunar Glow Refractor Auto RC /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now