Welbyn Francisca
SS · High-A · 20.0y · #25 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- STRONG PROSPECT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
86 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
16 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Auto 10 Welbyn Francisca… at $281. Needs a $121 drop.
Our take
Strong prospect, untested market.
Welbyn Francisca scores 86 out of 100 (#25 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $28–39 off 2 confirmed sales.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Power: plus-plus
.280 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 96% at his level.
The case is strengthening
Baseball momentum 69/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Moved up and held it
Low-A to High-A.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Contact: above average
21.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 70% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-WF — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$27.90–38.50midpoint $31.00
Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-24 · 2 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-WF
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is Welbyn Francisca 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto #CPA-WF PSA 9 Mint 1st Bowman at $55.49, 85% over the $30 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $30 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Needs a $121 drop
- Player not there yet
- 2023 Bowman Chrome Auto 10 Welbyn Francisca… at or under $160 delivered.
- On his best-priced card: evidence still thin.
What is for sale right now
16 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 16 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 10 are under "The whole live market".
WELBYN FRANCISCA 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST REFRACTOR AUTO /499 PSA 10 🔥💎🔥 B31
/499 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 583d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
sold $153
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Welbyn Francisca Auto Gold Mini Diamond Refractor 1st #/50
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 114d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$304.78
modeled $40.18–129
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Green Lava Auto/99 Welbyn Francisca #CPA-WF
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 16d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$156.00
modeled $30.13–97.02
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Welbyn Francisca #CPA-WF /299 Speckle Mint PSA 9
/299 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 9d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$135.98
modeled $37.50
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Welbyn Francisca 1st Auto Refractor /499 PSA 9 Guardians
/499 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 2d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$74.99
modeled $34.50
PASS
2023 1st Bowman Chrome Welbyn Francisca Auto /150 Choice Mojo Refractor
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$130.00
modeled $25.11–80.85
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Welbyn Francisca, just what the money can do today.
- Luke AdamsRefractor · /499$49.99Watch
- Christian MooreRefractor · /499$45.94Watch
- Charles McAdoo/150$45.16Watch47% under fair value
Compared within $27.75–$58.26, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 59 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $205.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $205.98 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $105.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $105.99 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -49%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mojo Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $130.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $130.00 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +23%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Lava /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $156.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $156.00 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +20%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mini Diamond Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $304.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $304.78 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +95%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
8 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 57 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 57 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
55
above average · better than 70% at his level
21.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
68
plus-plus · better than 96% at his level
.280 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
50
average · better than 49% at his level
11.3% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
54
above average · better than 64% at his level
25 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
65
plus-plus · better than 93% at his level · the result, not a skill
.940 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 70th percentile of the cohort, production at the 93th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 85% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 70 and his production sits at 93, a gap of -23. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 15th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.7 / 10
- hitting well — 0.940 OPS in 238 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
238
AVG
.290
OBP
.370
SLG
.570
OPS
.940
better than 93%
HR
15
SB
10
BB%
11.3
K%
21.0
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .622 to .940 after moving up to High-A. That is the shape of a breakout.
Moved up from Low-A to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.622▲.940
Power
.073▲.280
Walks
11.9%→11.3%
Strikeouts
17.1%▲21.0%
Last season, 428 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market16 listed · 16 eBay-verified · 10 not shown above
- Listings
- 16
- Lowest live
- $55.49
- Median ask
- $180.99
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $55.49
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $74.99
16 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 10 cards
- —2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Welbyn Francisca Auto Speckle Refractor /299 Guardians PASS
- $55.49Welbyn Francisca 2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto #CPA-WF PSA 9 Mint 1st BowmanPASS
- $205.98Welbyn Francisca 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Autograph Auto Refractor /499 GuardiansPASS
- $105.99Welbyn Francisca Auto 2023 Bowman Chrome #CPA-WF Prospect Purple Refractor /250PASS
- $234.982023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor Welbyn Francisca PSA 10 Auto 0ti4PASS
- $280.992023 Bowman Chrome Auto 10 Welbyn Francisca 1st Speckle /299 Gem Mint PSA 10PASS
- $405.982023 Bowman Chrome Auto Welbyn Francisca 1st Blue Raywave 30/150 Gem PSA 10PASS
- $505.952023 Bowman Chrome Welbyn Francisca #/299 Speckle Refractor Auto PSA 10 🔥PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Welbyn Francisca 1st Chrome Auto #CPA-WF Guardians (AU)PASS
- —2023 Bowman Chrome WELBYN FRANCISCA 1st Chrome Auto CPA-WF - GuardiansPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run