Deal Sniper

Maikel Garcia

3B · Northwest Arkansas Naturals · Double-A · 26.0y · #4386 of 7,922 we rate

The player
LONG SHOT

35 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

20 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.

Our take

Long-shot prospect, untested market.

Maikel Garcia scores 35 out of 100 (#4386 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: contact: plus-plus — 12.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 95% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 16 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Old for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than only 24% of the players there.

  • Power: below average

    .077 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Contact: plus-plus

    12.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 95% at his level.

  • Premium position

    3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Plate discipline: plus-plus

    18.8% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 94% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    16 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Age for the level

    -2.0y vs his level at Double-A puts him younger than only 24% of the cohort. The clock is a real cost on a prospect card.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

20 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".

  • MAIKEL GARCIA 2022 Bowman Chrome AUTO 18/50 ROYALS 1st GOLD Shimmer SGC 10/9.5

    /50 · SGC 10 · takes offers · listed 5d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Maikel Garcia Auto Refractor 1st #/499 Royals PSA 10

    /499 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 35d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome PSA 10 Maikel Garcia 1st Prospect Auto #CPAMG Royals 🔥⚾️

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 163d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $250.00

    modeled ~$170.05

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Maikel Garcia 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Blue Refractor Auto /150 PSA 9

    /150 · PSA 9 · listed 164d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    —

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Green Refractor 10/99 Maikel Garcia PSA 9 Auto 1u3n

    /99 · PSA 9 · listed 0d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $234.98

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Refractor Maikel Garcia #CPAMG /499 PSA 10

    /499 · PSA 10 · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $376.23

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Maikel Garcia, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $32.48–$68.20, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $64.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $64.95 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Blue RayWave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $285.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $285.99 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +340%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $289.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $289.00 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +1%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

8 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 58 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A

What he is good at

skills overall 58 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 95% at his level

    12.5% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    42

    below average · better than 20% at his level

    .077 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 94% at his level

    18.8% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    59

    plus · better than 81% at his level

    38 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    58

    plus · better than 79% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .823 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    43

    below average · better than 24% at his level · context, not a skill

    -2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 73th percentile of the cohort, production at the 79th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 73 and his production sits at 79, a gap of -6. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 39th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.3 / 10

  • already at Double-A
  • old for Double-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

16

AVG

.308

OBP

.438

SLG

.385

OPS

.823

better than 79%

HR

0

SB

1

BB%

18.8

K%

12.5

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market20 listed · 20 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
Listings
20

20 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$64.95
Median ask
$280.00
Cheapest 1st auto
$64.95
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$64.95

Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.

The other 13 cards

  • —Maikel Garcia 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Orange Wave Refractor Auto #/25PASS
  • $289.00MAIKEL GARCIA 2022 Bowman Chrome AUTO /50 ROYALS 1st Bowman GOLDPASS
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Maikel Garcia Royals Prospect Auto /50PASS
  • —Maikel Garcia 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Gold Shimmer Refractor Auto 50/50PASS
  • —2020 Bowman Chrome Draft Maikel Garcia 1st Yellow Refractor AUTO RC /75 RoyalsPASS
  • —2022 Bowman 1st Chrome Prospects Maikel Garcia Yellow Auto Autograph #/75PASS
  • —Maikel Garcia 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Green Refractor 17/99 #CPA-MG AutoPASS
  • $300.28PSA9! Maikel Garcia 1st Bowman auto /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $274.00 🚩🚩MAIKEL GARCIA🚩🚩 1st Bowman Purple Refractor 200/250/LOW POP/ Auto/ PSANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $285.99MAIKEL GARCIA 2022 Bowman Chrome #CPA-MG 1st Blue RayWave Refractor Auto /150PASS
  • $64.952022 Bowman Chrome Maikel Garcia 1st Bowman Chrome Speckle Auto /299 Royals🔥PASS
  • —2022 Topps Bowman Chrome Maikel Garcia 1st Bowman Refractor Auto /499PASS
  • —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome - Maikel Garcia 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-MGPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now