Deal Sniper

Moises Marchán

C · Rookie · 18.0y · #4363 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

35 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

33 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan 1st Auto… at $31.24. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Moises Marchán scores 35 out of 100 (#4363 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Rookie — younger than 80% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 87 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Rookie — younger than 80% of the players there.

  • Plate discipline: well below

    8.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: above average

    34 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 61% at his level.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (9th percentile); C sells at a discount at equal production.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    87 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 23 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 23 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 23 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $6.27 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

33 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 33 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 27 are under "The whole live market".

  • MOISES MARCHAN 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH BASEBALL ROYALS AUTO Q2754

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 6d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 58h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.27

    modeled ~$10.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • MOISES MARCHAN 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Rookie RC Autograph Auto #CPA-MM

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 318d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $10.24

    modeled ~$10.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Moises Marchán 2025 1st Bowman Chrome - Prospect Autographs #CPA-MM On Card Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 83d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $10.27

    modeled ~$10.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • Moises Marchan 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-MM Royals

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $10.48

    modeled ~$10.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Prospect - Moises Marchan Auto Kansas City Royals

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 119d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $10.69

    modeled ~$10.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Moises Marchan CPA-MM Royals

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 112d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.97

    modeled ~$10.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.27, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.27 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.73, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.73 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +167%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 43 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie

What he is good at

skills overall 43 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    44

    below average · better than 26% at his level

    27.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    37

    well below · better than 9% at his level

    .027 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    36

    well below · better than 8% at his level

    8.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    53

    above average · better than 61% at his level

    34 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    52

    average · better than 59% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .770 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 26th percentile of the cohort, production at the 59th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 94% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 26 and his production sits at 59, a gap of -33. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 6th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.6 / 10

  • nothing stands out either way

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 68% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production.

How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

87

AVG

.338

OBP

.405

SLG

.365

OPS

.770

better than 59%

HR

0

SB

5

BB%

8.0

K%

27.6

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market33 listed · 33 eBay-verified · 27 not shown above
Listings
33

33 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$6.27
Median ask
$14.94
Cheapest 1st auto
$6.27
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$31.24

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 27 cards

  • $11.992025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Moises Marchan Auto Kansas City Royals #BCP-242 1stLOTTERY
  • $12.222025 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect - Moises Marchan Auto Kansas City Royals #CPA-MMLOTTERY
  • $12.952025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan 1st Bowman Auto Free Shipping!!LOTTERY
  • $14.942025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan #CPA-MM | 1st Bowman On-Card Auto RoyalsLOTTERY
  • $14.94MOISES MARCHAN 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST BASE AUTOGRAPH ROYALS A AUTO Q1449LOTTERY
  • $14.982025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan Bowman 1st Auto Kansas City RoyalsLOTTERY
  • $15.782025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-MM RoyalsLOTTERY
  • $16.732025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 183/499 Moises Marchan #CPA-MM Auto 06l3LOTTERY
  • $20.98Moises Marchan 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-MM Royals Catcher ProspectLOTTERY
  • $23.642025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 213/499 Moises Marchan #CPA-MM Auto 13c1LOTTERY
  • $31.242025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan 1st Auto & Geometric Refractor 234/499NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $31.242025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan 1st Auto & Geometric Refractor 234/499NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $41.002025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan Blue RayWave Auto /150 PSA 9 Royals Rookie RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $499.002025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto /150 Moises Marchan Blue Reptilian PSA 9 RoyalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Moises Marchan 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Red Ink Shimmer Auto SSP RoyalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan 1st Chrm.Spkl. Ref. Auto (RC) Royals PSA 9🌶️NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchán 1st Bowman Auto CPA-MM RoyalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Moises Marchan 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-MM RoyalsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan #CPA-MM 1st Bowman Auto NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —MOISES MARCHAN 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH BASE Kansas City ROYALS AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Moises Marchan 1st Auto Royals #CPA-MMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan Auto 1st #CPA-MM Kansas City Royals ProspectNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Moises Marchan AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan 1st Prospect Auto Chrome Royals #CPA-MMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan 1st Prospect Auto Chrome Royals #CPA-MMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —MOISES MARCHAN 2025 1ST BOWMAN CHROME ON CARD AUTO PROSPECT CARDNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Moises Marchan 1st Bowman True Gold Auto Royals 25/50NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now