Deal Sniper

Hendry Mendez

CF · Triple-A · 22.0y · #160 of 7,922 we rate

The player
STRONG PROSPECT

76 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

19 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2022 Bowman Chrome Hendry Mendez 1st…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Strong prospect, untested market.

Hendry Mendez scores 76 out of 100 (#160 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.

  • OPS slipping

    .838 last season to .791 this one.

  • Contact: plus

    16.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 80% at his level.

  • The case is strengthening

    Baseball momentum 69/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Moved up and held it

    Double-A to Triple-A.

  • Premium position

    CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $13.40 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

19 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 19 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 13 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2022 Bowman 1st Prospects Hendry Mendez Brewers Auto Twins Auto

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether the signature is factory-certified or added later

    $13.40

    modeled ~$30.00

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 1st Bowman Chrome RC AUTO Hendry Mendez #CPA-HM! Twins! Rookie! Autograph!

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $32.90

    modeled ~$30.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 1st Bowman Chrome RC AUTO Hendry Mendez #CPA-HM! Twins! Rookie! Autograph!

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 10d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $36.66

    modeled ~$30.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 1st Bowman Chrome SPECKLE Refractor RC AUTO Hendry Mendez! Autograph /299

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $52.50

    modeled ~$36.01

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Hendry Mendez Chrome Auto 1st Prospect Refractor #/499 Brewers

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 10d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $56.98

    modeled ~$69.66

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 1st Bowman Chrome GREEN Shimmer RC AUTO Hendry Mendez! Rookie Autograph /99

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $69.30

    modeled ~$44.17

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $13.40, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $13.40 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $56.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $56.98 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +325%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $52.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $52.50 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -8%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Shimmer /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $69.30, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $69.30 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +32%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Shimmer /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $192.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $192.50 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +178%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 52 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level

    16.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    48

    average · better than 43% at his level

    .135 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    56

    above average · better than 73% at his level

    13.3% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    47

    average · better than 39% at his level

    7 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    53

    above average · better than 60% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .791 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    71

    plus-plus · better than 98% at his level · context, not a skill

    +4.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 59th percentile of the cohort, production at the 60th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 59 and his production sits at 60, a gap of -1. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 45th percentile.

Will he get there?

Strong chance 7.9 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • young for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

271

AVG

.278

OBP

.378

SLG

.413

OPS

.791

better than 60%

HR

7

SB

3

BB%

13.3

K%

16.6

Is this player getting better?

Down from .838 to .791 OPS, but he moved up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.838▼.791

Power

.140→.135

Walks

13.6%→13.3%

Strikeouts

13.2%▲16.6%

Last season, 491 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 13 not shown above
Listings
19

19 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$13.40
Median ask
$63.14
Cheapest 1st auto
$32.90
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$52.50

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 13 cards

  • $77.222022 1st Bowman Chrome GREEN Shimmer RC AUTO Hendry Mendez! Rookie Autograph /99NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $192.502022 1st Bowman Chrome GOLD Shimmer RC AUTO Hendry Mendez! Rookie! Autograph /50NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $214.502022 1st Bowman Chrome GOLD Shimmer RC AUTO Hendry Mendez! Rookie! Autograph /50NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $334.98HENDRY MENDEZ 2022 BOWMAN 1st TRUE BLUE REF RC AUTO/150 PSA 9 MINT! QTYNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Hendry Mendez 1st Refractor Auto /499 PSA 9 CPA-HM BrewersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • — 2022 Hendry Mendez Bowman 1st Chrome Sapphire Auto Aqua Refractor /99 BrewersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Hendry Mendez 1st Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10 Rookie RC TwinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Prospects - Hendry Mendez #BCP-88 Auto Autograph MIL PHI 1stNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Hendry Mendez Bowman 1st Auto 2025 Sapphire #BSPA-HMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Hendry Mendez 1st Bowman Refractor Auto /499 CPA-HM BrewersNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Hendry Mendez Purple Refractor Auto 15/250 Brewers #CPA-HMNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 1st Bowman Chrome AQUA Sapphire RC AUTO Hendry Mendez PSA 10! Autograph /99NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Hendry Mendez Auto /50 PSA 10 1st Twins (RC, AU)NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now