Esmerlyn Valdez
RF · Indianapolis Indians · Triple-A · 22.0y · #5 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- ELITE PROFILE
- The market
- Expensive
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
90 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $91, over the $75.55 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is Esmerlyn Valdez 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-EV…. Priced above value.
Our take
Elite prospect, expensive market.
Esmerlyn Valdez scores 90 out of 100 (#5 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $57–94 off 1 confirmed sale.
The player is not the problem here; the entry is. Waiting for a reset costs nothing while the baseball case is intact.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — rF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
The signal
Young for the level
+4.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 98% of the players there.
Speed: below average
0 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
OPS slipping
.977 last season to .914 this one.
Power slipping
.289 last season to .271 this one.
Plate discipline: plus
17.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 92% at his level.
The case is strengthening
Baseball momentum 81/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Why now
6 new copies listed this week
Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.
What could go wrong
Corner-only profile
RF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
Asks above the sold band
Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-EV — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 10 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$56.66–94.44midpoint $75.55
Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-23 · 11 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-EV
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 10 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is Esmerlyn Valdez 2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-EV First (1st) Chrome Prospect AUTO -B at $229, 203% over the $75.55 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $75.55 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Priced above value
- On his best-priced card: evidence still thin.
What is for sale right now
35 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 35 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 29 are under "The whole live market".
ESMERLYN VALDEZ 2024 BOWMAN CHROME TRUE GOLD REFRACTOR AUTO 1ST PROSPECT /50
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 51h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $81.59–317
WATCH
2024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez Chrome Auto Blue Refractor 1st #/150 Pirates
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$605.49
modeled $51–198
WATCH
Esmerlyn Valdez 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto True Blue Refractor 113/150 Pirates
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 16d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$806.48
modeled $51–198
WATCH
2024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez Chrome Auto Blue Lunar Refractor 1st 082/150 Pirates
/150 · raw · condition not stated · auction · listed 7d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 89h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $51–198
WATCH
2024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez Chrome Auto Mini Diamonds Refractor 1st 072/100
/100 · raw · condition not stated · auction · listed 7d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 89h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $51–198
WATCH
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st True Blue Refractor Auto Esmerlyn Valdez /150 Pittsburg
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 15d
Evidence still thin · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 60h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $51–198
WATCH
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Esmerlyn Valdez, just what the money can do today.
- Walker Jenkinsbase$67.98Watch
- Luke AdamsHTA Choice Refractor · /150$74.96Watch
- Rainiel Rodriguezbase$69.99Watch44% under fair value
Compared within $45.50–$95.55, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 59 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $91.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $91.00 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $270.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $270.00 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +197%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $605.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $605.49 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +124%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $806.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $806.48 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +33%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 56 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 56 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
52
average · better than 57% at his level
21.5% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
63
plus · better than 90% at his level
.271 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
64
plus · better than 92% at his level
17.3% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
60
plus · better than 84% at his level · the result, not a skill
.914 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
71
plus-plus · better than 98% at his level · context, not a skill
+4.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 67th percentile of the cohort, production at the 84th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 67 and his production sits at 84, a gap of -17. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 23th percentile.
Will he get there?
About as likely as prospects get 8.6 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- young for Triple-A
- hitting well — 0.914 OPS in 237 PA (not ranked against his level)
- form is climbing
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
237
AVG
.255
OBP
.388
SLG
.526
OPS
.914
better than 84%
HR
13
SB
0
BB%
17.3
K%
21.5
Is this player getting better?
Down from .977 to .914 OPS, but he moved up to Triple-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from High-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.977▼.914
Power
.289▼.271
Walks
9.9%▲17.3%
Strikeouts
24.5%▼21.5%
Last season, 314 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market35 listed · 35 eBay-verified · 29 not shown above
- Listings
- 35
- Lowest seen
- $91.00
- Median ask
- $270.00
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $91.00
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $270.00
35 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 29 cards
- —2024 1st Bowman Chrome Esmerlyn Valdez Auto Purple Refractor /250WATCH
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Esmerlyn Valdez Auto Purple Refractor 1st #/250 PiratesWATCH
- —Esmerlyn Valdez 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Purple Refractors #/250 AUTOWATCH
- —Esmerlyn Valdez 2024 1st Bowman Chrome Purple Refractors #/250 AUTOWATCH
- —2024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez Chrome Auto Speckle Refractor 1st 112/299 PiratesWATCH
- —2024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez Chrome Auto Speckle Refractor 1st 286/299 PiratesWATCH
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Esmerlyn Valdez Speckle Auto /299 1st AutoWATCH
- —2024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez 1st Bowman Chrome Rookie Auto Speckle Refractor /299WATCH
- —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome Esmerlyn Valdez CPA-EV Orange Refractor /25 Auto PSA 9WATCH
- $91.002024 Bowman Chrome Esmerlyn Valdez 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PiratesWATCH
- $155.992024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez 1st Chrome Auto #CPA-EV Pirates Star RookieWATCH
- $229.33Esmerlyn Valdez 2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-EV First (1st) Chrome Prospect AUTO -BWATCH
- —2024 Topps Bowman Chrome Prospects Esmerlyn Valdez Pirates Auto CPA-EV 1st AutoWATCH
- —2024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-EV Pirates 🔥📈 #4WATCH
- —2024 Esmerlyn Valdez 1st RC Bowman Chrome #CPA-EV Auto Graded 10 Pirates ROY?WATCH
- —Esmerlyn Valdez 2024 Bowman Chrome CPA-EV 1st Bowman Auto *Sharp Corners!!WATCH
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Esmerlyn Valdez 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PiratesWATCH
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Esmerlyn Valdez Auto #CPA-EV 1st Prospect Pirates AutographWATCH
- —2024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-EV Pirates 🔥📈 #4WATCH
- —2024 Bowman 1st Auto Esmerlyn Valdez Speckle Refractor /299 Pittsburgh PiratesPASS
- —2024 Bowman 1st Auto Esmerlyn Valdez Speckle Refractor /299 Pittsburgh PiratesPASS
- $394.991St Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez Auto 250 Siri Baseball Card UsedPASS
- $260.002024 Bowman Chrome 1st Esmerlyn Valdez Auto Pirates RC PSA 9 CPA-EV CPAEVNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $606.982024 Bowman Esmerlyn Valdez #CPA-EV 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PSA 10 GEM MINT 🔥 NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman ESMERLYN VALDEZ Chrome Auto TRUE BLUE Refractor 1st #/150 PSA 9 MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Esmerlyn Valdez 1st Auto Refractor /499 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $270.002024 Bowman Chrome Esmerlyn Valdez Refractor 1st Bowman Auto /499 PASS
- —Esmerlyn Valdez 2024 Bowman Chrome On-Card Auto 1st Prospect Rookie PiratesPASS
- —Esmerlyn Valdez 2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-EV Refractor 1st RC Auto /499 RC PiratesPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run