Deal Sniper

Adrian Placencia

SS · High-A · 23.0y · #3786 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

37 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

11 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is ADRIAN PLACENCIA 2022 Bowman Chrome SPECKLE… at $6.29. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Adrian Placencia scores 37 out of 100 (#3786 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: plate discipline: plus-plus — 23.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 97% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (35.6% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Contact: well below

    35.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • OPS slipping

    .722 last season to .619 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .171 last season to .135 this one.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: plus-plus

    23.3% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 97% at his level.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (35.6% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

11 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 11 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 5 are under "The whole live market".

  • ADRIAN PLACENCIA 2022 Bowman Chrome SPECKLE REFRACTOR Phillies 1st RC AUTO /299

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 31d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.29

    modeled ~$8.00

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Adrian Placencia 1st Speckle Refractor Auto /299 #CPA-APA

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 357d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $9.50

    modeled ~$8.00

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 BOWMAN CHROME ADRIAN PLACENCIA RC AUTO SPECKLE REFRACTOR #D 023/299 SP 1ST

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 188d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $9.61

    modeled ~$8.00

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Adrian Placencia 1st Blue Wave Auto /150 CPA-APA

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 354d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $11.25

    modeled ~$6.00

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue RayWave Refractor Adrian Placencia Auto 16hz

    Blue RayWave Refractor · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $17.32

    modeled ~$8.00

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECT AUTOS REFRACTOR ADRIAN PLACENCIA 398/499 PSA 9 AUTO

    /499 · PSA 9 · listed 480d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $25.98

    no sold price

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • Blue RayWave RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $17.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $17.32 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $6.29, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.29 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -64%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Wave /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $11.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $11.25 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +79%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

5 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    39

    well below · better than 14% at his level

    35.6% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    50

    average · better than 51% at his level

    .135 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    69

    plus-plus · better than 97% at his level

    23.3% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    47

    average · better than 40% at his level

    10 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    44

    below average · better than 28% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .619 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    51

    average · better than 53% at his level · context, not a skill

    0.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 51th percentile of the cohort, production at the 28th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 85% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 51 and his production sits at 28, a gap of +23. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 85th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 3.2 / 10

  • old for High-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

180

AVG

.134

OBP

.350

SLG

.269

OPS

.619

better than 28%

HR

5

SB

3

BB%

23.3

K%

35.6

Is this player getting better?

Down from .722 to .619 OPS this season.

Still at High-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.722▼.619

Power

.171▼.135

Walks

14.6%▲23.3%

Strikeouts

30.1%▲35.6%

Last season, 501 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market11 listed · 11 eBay-verified · 5 not shown above
Listings
11

11 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$6.29
Median ask
$17.32
Cheapest 1st auto
$6.29
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$6.29

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 5 cards

  • $31.122022 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor /299 Adrian Placencia Auto 15r3PASS
  • $36.50CZG41 - 2022 Bowman Chrome - Adrian Placencia #CPA-APA - Auto Yellow /75 PSA 9PASS
  • $37.942022 Bowman Chrome Adrian Placencia Auto Speckle Refractor 1st #/299 PSA 10PASS
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Adrian Placencia Green 1st Atomic Auto /99 SGC 10PASS
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome ADRIAN PLACENCIA /250 AUTO SGC 10 / 9 Purple Refractor AngelsPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now