Nikau Pouaka-Grego
SS · Reading Fightin Phils · Double-A · 21.0y · #3494 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
40 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
33 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is NIKAU POUAKA-GREGO 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST… at $9.99. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Nikau Pouaka-Grego scores 40 out of 100 (#3494 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 35 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Contact: bottom of the scale
45.7% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: above average
11.4% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 62% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
Little power for his level (9th percentile); SS is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
35 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 29 on the 20–80 scale (45.7% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 6 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 7 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 6 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /150 at $7.42 costs 1.27× base, and print run alone suggests 1.50×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
33 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 33 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 27 are under "The whole live market".
2023 Bowman Chrome NIKAU POUAKA-GREGO CPA-NP 1st Refractor Auto /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 51d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$4.99
modeled ~$14.00
LOTTERY
2023 Bowman Chrome NIKAU POUAKA-GREGO 1st RC On Card AUTO #CPA-NP Phillies
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 24d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$5.83
modeled ~$10.59
LOTTERY
Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO BLUE REFRACTOR 132/150 RC z4
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$7.42
modeled ~$53.00
LOTTERY
2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Purple Refractor /250 Nikau Pouaka-Grego Auto
/250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 382d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.20
modeled ~$23.00
LOTTERY
NIKAU POUAKA-GREGO 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST REFRACTOR AUTO /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.99
modeled ~$14.00
LOTTERY
2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Nikau Pouaka-Grego #CPA-NP Auto 14lm
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$10.42
modeled ~$14.00
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5.83, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5.83 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -14%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.20, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.20 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +64%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.42, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.42 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -10%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $19.44, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $19.44 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +162%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Shimmer Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $20.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $20.90 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +8%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
8 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 40 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 40 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
29
bottom of the scale · better than 2% at his level
45.7% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
37
well below · better than 9% at his level
.000 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
53
above average · better than 62% at his level
11.4% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
41
well below · better than 18% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
32
bottom of the scale · better than 4% at his level · the result, not a skill
.372 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 23th percentile of the cohort, production at the 4th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 23 and his production sits at 4, a gap of +19. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 78th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.0 / 10
- already at Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
35
AVG
.107
OBP
.265
SLG
.107
OPS
.372
better than 4%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
11.4
K%
45.7
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market33 listed · 33 eBay-verified · 27 not shown above
- Listings
- 33
- Lowest seen
- $4.99
- Median ask
- $16.74
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $4.99
33 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 27 cards
- $10.69Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st /499 Refractor Auto #CPA-NP PhilliesLOTTERY
- $13.54Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Autograph Auto A Card #CPA-NPLOTTERY
- $13.54Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Autograph Auto Card #CPA-NPLOTTERY
- $15.992023 Bowman Chrome Speckle Refractor Nikau Pouaka-Grego /299 SGC 9 AUTOLOTTERY
- $16.502023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Nikau Pouaka Grego Auto PSA 9LOTTERY
- $16.992023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Nikau Pouaka-Grego Auto Phillies #BCP-89 1st CardLOTTERY
- $19.44Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st #d /100 Atomic Refractor Auto #CPA-NPLOTTERY
- $20.312023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Nikau Pouaka-Grego Auto Blue Refrator PSA 9LOTTERY
- $20.90Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Green Shimmer Refractor /99 LOTTERY
- $24.992023 Bowman Chrome Nikau Pouaka-Grego 1st Blue Crater Refractor Auto 078/150LOTTERY
- $24.992023 Bowman Chrome Nikau Pouaka-Grego 1st Blue Crater Refractor Auto 078/150LOTTERY
- $24.99Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor /499 Auto PSA 9 RookieLOTTERY
- $34.572023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Nikau Pouaka-Grego #CPA-NP Auto 11s9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $36.292023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor Nikau Pouaka-Grego PSA 10 Auto 0ok8NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $46.072023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Nikau Pouaka-Grego Auto 15txNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $75.982023 Bowman Nikau Pouaka-Grego Auto 1st Bowman #CPA-NP SGC 10/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Green Shimmer Refractor /99 NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2022 Bowman Chrome 1st Nikau Pouaka-Grego Auto Blue Shimmer #CPA-NP /150NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Speckle Auto #D /299 PhilliesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Nikau Pouaka-Grego 1st Bowman Auto Green Shimmer Refractor...NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome NIKAU POUAKA-GREGO 1st RC On Card AUTO #CPA-NP PhilliesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Purple Auto /250 CPA-NPNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO SPECKLE REFRACTOR 015/299 RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Nikau Pouaka-Grego Chrome Prospect Auto 1st #CPA-NPNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-NP Philadelphia PhilliesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Nikau Pouaka-Grego 2023 1st Bowman Chrome Blue Crater Auto /150 PSA 9 #CPANPNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Prospects Nikau Pouaka Grego Auto PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run