Deal Sniper

Camilo Diaz

SS · Fayetteville Woodpeckers · Low-A · 20.0y · #3461 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

40 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

14 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2023 Bowman Chrome Camilo Diaz 1st ORANGE… at $360. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Camilo Diaz scores 40 out of 100 (#3461 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 31 on the 20–80 scale (43.2% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.

  • Contact: bottom of the scale

    43.2% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: plus

    52 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 89% at his level.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    SS is a position the hobby pays up for.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 31 on the 20–80 scale (43.2% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-CD — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 7 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 7 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-CD

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 7 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2023 Bowman Chrome CAMILO DIAZ 1st Prospect Refractor On Card Auto # /499 Astros at $19.98, 788% over the $2.25 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/499 at or under $2.25 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

14 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 14 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 8 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Camilo Diaz Gold Diamond Refractor Auto /50 SGC 10 Gem MT

    /50 · SGC 10 · takes offers · listed 126d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $298.98

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Camilo Diaz 1st ORANGE WAVE Auto /25 PSA 10 Astros Match

    /25 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 100d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $360.00

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • CAMILO DIAZ 2023 BOWMAN CHROME #CPACD AUTO 1ST ROOKIE RC PSA 9

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 722d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    —

    modeled ~$44.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • CAMILO DIAZ 2023 Bowman Chrome Autographs ~ Astros 1st RC AUTO

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 7d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $5.29

    modeled ~$8.04

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2023 Bowman Chrome Camilo Diaz 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-CD Astros 🔥💥🔥

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 58d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.11

    modeled ~$8.04

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Camilo Diaz 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-CD Astros

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 44d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $6.24

    modeled ~$8.04

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $5.29, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $5.29 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $9.31, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $9.31 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +76%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $28.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $28.24 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +203%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 47 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A

What he is good at

skills overall 47 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    31

    bottom of the scale · better than 3% at his level

    43.2% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    50

    average · better than 50% at his level

    .118 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    44

    below average · better than 28% at his level

    8.7% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    62

    plus · better than 89% at his level

    52 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    40

    well below · better than 17% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .535 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    60

    plus · better than 83% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 43th percentile of the cohort, production at the 17th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 90% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 43 and his production sits at 17, a gap of +26. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 90th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 3.4 / 10

  • nothing stands out either way

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

206

AVG

.168

OBP

.249

SLG

.286

OPS

.535

better than 17%

HR

6

SB

18

BB%

8.7

K%

43.2

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market14 listed · 14 eBay-verified · 8 not shown above
Listings
14

14 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$5.29
Median ask
$16.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$5.29
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$9.31

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 8 cards

  • $13.99CAMILO DIAZ 2023 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-CDNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $20.442023 Bowman Chrome Camilo Diaz CPA-CD 1st RC Auto Houston Astros Prospect 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2023 Bowman Chrome #CPA-CD 1st Camilo Diaz AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Camilo Diaz 2023 Bowman 1st Auto Chrome Auto Houston Astros CPA-CDNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $28.242023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor /299 Camilo Diaz #CPA-CD Auto 0t2mNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $9.31Camilo Diaz 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Refractor 051/499 #CPA-CD RCPASS
  • $19.982023 Bowman Chrome CAMILO DIAZ 1st Prospect Refractor On Card Auto # /499 AstrosPASS
  • —Camilo Diaz 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Refractor /499 #CPA-CD RCPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now