Eli Serrano III
CF · Double-A · 23.0y · #1538 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
54 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
19 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Eli Serrano III scores 54 out of 100 (#1538 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 80% of the players there.
OPS slipping
.690 last season to .662 this one.
Plate discipline: above average
12.8% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 74% at his level.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Double-A.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Power: above average
.159 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 62% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-ESE — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 4 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 4 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-ESE
Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto
The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 4 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Eli Serrano #CPA-ESE Auto 8g8 at $51.52, 415% over the $10 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
/499 at or under $10 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: not a core card.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
19 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 18 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 12 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman Chrome Eli Serrano Rookie Superfractor Auto 1/1 PSA 10 10 Gem Mets
1/1 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 8d
Not a core card · 2 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$6000.00
modeled ~$122.94
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Eli Serrano Green Refractor Auto #2/99 NY METS
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 28d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$285.49
modeled $9
PASS
2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Eli Serrano Green Refractor Auto #24/99 NY METS
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 350d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
—
modeled $9
PASS
Eli Serrano 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto True Blue Refractor /150 #CPA-ESE
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 360d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$300.85
modeled $7.50
PASS
Eli Serrano 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Blue Wave Refractor /150 #CPA-ESE
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 220d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$304.85
modeled $7.50
PASS
Eli Serrano 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Auto Blue Wave Refractor /150 #CPA-ESE
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 210d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$355.85
modeled $7.50
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.00 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $24.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $24.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +178%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Aqua Lava Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $17.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $17.99 live
- Scarcity
- 199 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -28%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Wave Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $304.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $304.85 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1595%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $51.52, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $51.52 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -83%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $300.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $300.85 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +484%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $285.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $285.49 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -5%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 52 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
49
average · better than 46% at his level
26.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
53
above average · better than 62% at his level
.159 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level
12.8% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
49
average · better than 45% at his level
15 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
46
below average · better than 36% at his level · the result, not a skill
.662 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
58
plus · better than 80% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 57th percentile of the cohort, production at the 36th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 81% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 57 and his production sits at 36, a gap of +21. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 81th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.3 / 10
- already at Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
235
AVG
.195
OBP
.308
SLG
.354
OPS
.662
better than 36%
HR
4
SB
6
BB%
12.8
K%
26.0
Is this player getting better?
Down from .690 to .662 OPS, but he moved up to Double-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.
Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.690▼.662
Power
.136▲.159
Walks
13.1%→12.8%
Strikeouts
20.1%▲26.0%
Last season, 383 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market19 listed · 19 eBay-verified · 12 not shown above
- Listings
- 19
- Lowest seen
- $9.00
- Median ask
- $39.17
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $9.00
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $17.99
19 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 8 hours ago.
The other 12 cards
- $17.992024 Bowman Draft Eli Serrano Chrome Prospect Auto Aqua Lava Refractor 1st #/199LOTTERY
- $9.002024 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Auto #CPA-ESE Eli Serrano Prospect AutographsLOTTERY
- $9.992024 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospect Autograph ELI SERRANO 1st Auto #CPA-ESE MetsLOTTERY
- $11.31Eli Serrano 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-ESELOTTERY
- $11.782024 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Auto #CPA-ESE Eli Serrano Prospect AutographsLOTTERY
- —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Eli Serrano Mets Auto #CPA-ESEPASS
- —2024 Bowman Draft ELI SERRANO 1st True Green Refractor Auto /99 CPA-ESE - Mets⚾️PASS
- $51.522024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect HTA Choice Refractor /150 Eli Serrano Auto 4f5PASS
- $39.172024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Aqua Lava Refractor /199 Eli Serrano Auto 0vm6PASS
- $51.522024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Eli Serrano #CPA-ESE Auto 8g8PASS
- $24.992024 Bowman Draft #CPA-ESE Eli Serrano Chrome Prospect Auto Refractor #/499LOTTERY
- $13.872024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Eli Serrano #CPA-ESE Auto 19ygLOTTERY
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run