Fabian Lopez
SS · FCL Marlins · Rookie · 20.0y · #3435 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
40 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
72 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is /50 Fabian Lopez 1st Chrome AUTO 2025… at $21.78. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Fabian Lopez scores 40 out of 100 (#3435 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: above average — .163 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 76% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 71 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Contact: well below
33.8% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Power: above average
.163 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 76% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
SS is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
71 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 37 on the 20–80 scale (33.8% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-FL — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 30 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 31 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-FL
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 30 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
/150$9.99delivered
2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Fabian Lopez Blue Refractor Auto /150 #CPA-FL 1st — $9.99 delivered, 17% under the $11.99 that copies of this exact card have confirmed sold in.
See it on eBayWhat would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
72 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 71 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 65 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Fabian Lopez Blue Refractor Auto /150 #CPA-FL 1st
/150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 189d
Player not there yet · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.99
sold $11.99
LOTTERY · 17% under
FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH REFRACTOR AUTO SP/499 Miami
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 22d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.99
modeled ~$11.11
LOTTERY
FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH GREEN GRASS AUTO /99 ⚾🌟
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 37d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$8.29
modeled ~$42.00
LOTTERY
2025 bowman chrome Fabian Lopez auto Speckle /299 1st Bowman
/299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.00
modeled ~$14.50
LOTTERY
2025 Bowman Fabian Lopez Chrome Auto Refractor 1st Prospect #/499 Marlins
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.25
modeled ~$11.11
LOTTERY
2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor Fabian Lopez 1ST ROOKIE AUTO /499
/499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 429d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$11.24
modeled ~$11.00
LOTTERY
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder13 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $4.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $4.98 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- MojoTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.36, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.36 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +128%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.99 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -30%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.00 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +13%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $12.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $12.50 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +39%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $12.28, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $12.28 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -2%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -19%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - HTA Choice Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $12.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $12.90 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +29%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.99 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +8%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sparkle Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.00 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +7%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Grass /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $8.29, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $8.29 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -45%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Shimmer Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $11.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $11.49 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +39%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Lava Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.78 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +90%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 45 on the 20–80 scale, against 1087 hitters at Rookie
What he is good at
skills overall 45 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 1087 hitters at Rookie — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
37
well below · better than 10% at his level
33.8% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
57
above average · better than 76% at his level
.163 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
47
average · better than 39% at his level
14.1% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
39
well below · better than 14% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level · the result, not a skill
.654 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
46
below average · better than 34% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 35th percentile of the cohort, production at the 29th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 35 and his production sits at 29, a gap of +6. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 1,087 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 59th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 3.6 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 68% of what it wants to know — missing readiness, production.
How he is playingThe Rookie line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 1087 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
71
AVG
.182
OBP
.309
SLG
.345
OPS
.654
better than 29%
HR
2
SB
0
BB%
14.1
K%
33.8
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market72 listed · 72 eBay-verified · 65 not shown above
- Listings
- 72
- Lowest seen
- $4.98
- Median ask
- $11.42
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $4.98
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $7.99
72 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 65 cards
- $11.252025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Fabian Lopez 1st Auto Refractor /499 #CPA-FLLOTTERY
- $11.492025 Bowman Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Green Shimmer Refractor Auto /99 LOTTERY
- $12.282025 Bowman Chrome Fabian Lopez Blue X-Fractor 1st Auto /150 Miami Marlins CPAFLLOTTERY
- $12.502025 Bowman Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Purple Refractor Auto /250 #CPA-FLLOTTERY
- $12.902025 1ST BOWMAN CHROME - FABIAN LOPEZ - HTA CHOICE REFRACTOR AUTO /150 - MARLINSLOTTERY
- $12.902025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor Fabian Lopez 1ST ROOKIE AUTO /499LOTTERY
- $13.99Fabian Lopez 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Mini-Diamond Refractor /100 Marlins LOTTERY
- $14.00FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH REFRACTOR AUTO /499LOTTERY
- $14.172025 Bowman 1st Fabian Lopez Chrome Auto Green Shimmer Refractor /99LOTTERY
- $14.992025 Bowman Chrome FABIAN LOPEZ 1st Purple Refractor Auto RC #d/250 MarlinsLOTTERY
- $15.002025 Bowman Chrome 1st FABIAN LOPEZ AUTO Sparkle Refractor /100 Miami Marlins LOTTERY
- $21.78/50 Fabian Lopez 1st Chrome AUTO 2025 Bowman #CPA-FL GOLD LAVA REFRACTOR MarlinsLOTTERY
- —FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 1ST BOWMAN CHROME AUTOGRAPH GREEN REPTILIAN AUTO /99NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Fabian Lopez #d /250 Purple Refractor Rookie Auto 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st #CPA-FLNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 BOWMAN CHROME FABIAN LOPEZ ORANGE WAVE 10/25 1ST ROOKIE AUTO MARLINSNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Auto & 1st Orange Chrome Reptilian /25NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome FABIAN LOPEZ 1st Purple Refractor Auto RC #d/250 Marlins 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH GREEN GRASS AUTO /99NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH REFRACTOR AUTO /499NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 1st Bowman Chrome - Fabian Lopez Auto Speckle Refractor /299NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor Fabian Lopez 1ST ROOKIE AUTO 374/499⚾️⚾️⚾️NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Purple Refractor Auto /250 #CPA-FLNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome - Fabian Lopez 1st Auto Speckle Refractor 233 /299NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome FABIAN LOPEZ 1st Purple Refractor Auto RC #d/250 MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Fabian Lopez Chrome Auto Refractor 1st #59/499 MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Fabian Lopez 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Speckle Refractor Auto /299 #CPA-FLNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $4.982025 Bowman Fabian Lopez Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-FL MarlinsLOTTERY
- $5.00Fabian Lopez 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st On-Card Auto RC Prospect CPA-FLLOTTERY
- $5.25Fabian Lopez 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect On-Card Auto #CPA-FL Miami MarlinsLOTTERY
- $5.452025 Bowman Fabian Lopez Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-FL MarlinsLOTTERY
- $5.682025 Topps Bowman Chrome #CPA-FL Fabian Lopez 1st Auto Marlins KM022LOTTERY
- $7.752025 Bowman Chrome 1st Fabian Lopez Prospect Autograph Auto MarlinsLOTTERY
- $7.90FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH MARLINS AUTOLOTTERY
- $8.44Fabian Lopez 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-FLLOTTERY
- $11.07Fabian Lopez 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Rookie Auto Marlins RC Card #CPA-FLLOTTERY
- $11.252025 Bowman Chrome - Fabian Lopez 1ST BOWMAN ON CARD AUTO - MarlinsLOTTERY
- $11.36Fabian Lopez 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Mojo MarlinsLOTTERY
- $11.482025 Topps Bowman Chrome #CPA-FL Fabian Lopez 1st Auto Marlins KM022LOTTERY
- $11.502025 Topps Bowman Chrome Fabian Lopez #cpa-fl Auto 1st Bowman MarlinsLOTTERY
- $11.952025 Bowman Fabian Lopez Chrome Auto #CPA-FL 1st Prospect Miami MarlinsLOTTERY
- $11.99FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTOGRAPH MARLINS AUTOLOTTERY
- $12.222025 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect - Fabian Lopez Auto Miami Marlins #CPA-FLLOTTERY
- $15.49FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-FLLOTTERY
- —FABIAN LOPEZ 2025 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST AUTO BASEBALL #CPA-FL MARLINSNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome Fabian Lopez Miami Marlins 1st Auto CPA-FLNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Base Auto Miami Marlins ANEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Base Auto Miami Marlins BNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Fabian Lopez 1st Base Chrome Prospect AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Fabian Lopez AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2025 Bowman Fabian Lopez Marlins 1st Bowman Chrome AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Prospect Auto RC #CPA-FL Marlins 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Miami Marlins Fabian Lopez 1st Chrome Prospect Auto CPA-FLNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Fabian Lopez 2025 Bowman Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-FL MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-FL Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Auto RefractorNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Fabian Lopez Chrome On Card Auto 1st MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Prospect Auto RC #CPA-FL Marlins 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Fabian Lopez Chrome Auto 1st #CPA-FL MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Fabian Lopez 1st Base Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-FLNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-FL ⚾️ MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Fabian Lopez 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Miami MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Bowman 2025 Fabian Lopez Auto And 1st ChromeNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Base Auto Miami Marlins ANEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Draft Chrome Fabian Lopez 1st Bowman Base Auto Miami Marlins BNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —FABIAN LOPEZ 1st Bowman Chrome Auto 2025 Topps Bowman Baseball CPA-FL MarlinsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $16.162025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Fabian Lopez #CPA-FL Auto 0w47LOTTERY
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run