Yairo Padilla
SS · Peoria Chiefs · High-A · 19.0y · #3370 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Priced fairly
- What to do
- Wait
41 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $31, inside the $29.99–32 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla Auto 1st…. Player not there yet.
Our take
Fringe prospect, priced about right.
Yairo Padilla scores 41 out of 100 (#3370 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +4.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 99% of the players there.
His core Bowman card has been selling at $27–35 off 2 confirmed sales.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 8 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+4.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 99% of the players there.
Contact: bottom of the scale
50.0% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Plate discipline: above average
12.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 60% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
Little power for his level (8th percentile); SS is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
4 new copies listed this week
Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.
What could go wrong
Small sample
8 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 29 on the 20–80 scale (50.0% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-YP — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 7 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
$26.99–35.20midpoint $32.00
Evidence limited· 2 salesmost recent 2026-08-23 · 7 listed now
- 7 days
- not enough sales
- 30 days
- not enough sales
- 90 days
- not enough sales
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-YP
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 7 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Base$29.99delivered
2025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-YP — $29.99 delivered, 6% under the $29.99–32 that copies of this exact card have confirmed sold in.
See it on eBayWhat would make this a buy
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
18 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 18 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 12 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla Auto 1st #CPA-YP St. Louis Cardinals
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Player not there yet
Data stale — Last confirmed live 63h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $29.99–32
PASS · 22% under
2025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-YP
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 17d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 63h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$29.99
sold $29.99–32
PASS · 6% under
2025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-YP
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 10d
Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 63h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $29.99–32
PASS · 6% under
2025 Yairo Padilla💎1st Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto #CPA-YP RC Cardinals!🔥🔥🔥
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 13d
Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 63h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $29.99–32
PASS · 6% under
2025 Bowman Yairo Padilla 1st Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-YP Cardinals
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 4d
Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 63h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $29.99–32
PASS · 6% under
2025 1st Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla Auto CPA-YP
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
$31.00
sold $29.99–32
PASS · 3% under
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $29.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $29.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $74.24, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $74.24 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +148%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Orange Shimmer /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $456.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $456.00 live
- Scarcity
- 25 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +514%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
4 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 40 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 40 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
29
bottom of the scale · better than 2% at his level
50.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
36
well below · better than 8% at his level
.000 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
53
above average · better than 60% at his level
12.5% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 25% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
27
bottom of the scale · better than 1% at his level · the result, not a skill
.125 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
73
plus-plus · better than 99% at his level · context, not a skill
+4.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 24th percentile of the cohort, production at the 1th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 85% of the players he is measured against.
The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.
How this is read: his skills average 24 and his production sits at 1, a gap of +23. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 85th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.2 / 10
- young for High-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
8
AVG
.000
OBP
.125
SLG
.000
OPS
.125
better than 1%
HR
0
SB
0
BB%
12.5
K%
50.0
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market18 listed · 18 eBay-verified · 12 not shown above
- Listings
- 18
- Lowest seen
- $29.99
- Median ask
- $120.83
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $29.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $105.16
18 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 9 hours ago.
The other 12 cards
- $456.002025 1st Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla Orange Shimmer Auto /25 CPA-YPPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-YPPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Draft Yairo Padilla True Gold 1st Auto /50 CARDINALSPASS
- —Yairo Padilla 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Gold Mini Diamond /50 CardinalsPASS
- $105.162025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla 1st Bowman Refractor Auto /499 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $136.492025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla Auto Speckle 1st Prospect #'d 80/299 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $299.992025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla 1st Blue Raywave 097/150 Refractor Auto PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $299.992025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla Auto Speckle Refractor 1st #/299 PSA 10 GemNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla Green Reptilian 1st Auto /99 St Louis CardinalsPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Yairo Padilla 1st Chrome Refractor Auto 302/499 SP CardinalsPASS
- —2025 Yairo Padilla💎1st Bowman Chrome Refractor/499 Auto #CPA-YP Cardinals🔥🔥🔥PASS
- $74.242025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Yairo Padilla #CPA-YP Auto sc8PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run