Deal Sniper

Arol Vera

SS · Triple-A · 23.0y · #3191 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

42 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

46 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2021 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 126/150 Blue…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Arol Vera scores 42 out of 100 (#3191 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.

  • Power: well below

    .055 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    Little power for his level (13th percentile); SS is a position the hobby pays up for.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-AVE — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 17 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 19 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-AVE

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 17 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet
  • On his best-priced card: not a core card.

What is for sale right now

46 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 46 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 40 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Draft AROL VERA 1st non-auto Chrome ANGELS #BDC-181

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1686d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    $1.65

    no sold price

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Arol Vera 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto, #CPA-AVE, California Angels

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 702d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $3.26

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome 1ST Refractor Auto Arol Vera 446/499

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 467d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $3.79

    modeled ~$10.99

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Autograph Arol Vera #CPA-AVE

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 570d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $3.95

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Arol Vera CPA-AVE 1st Chrome Auto | Los Angeles Angels

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 478d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $3.99

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Arol Vera CPA-AVE 1st Chrome Auto | Los Angeles Angels

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 478d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $3.99

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $3.26, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $3.26 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $3.79, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $3.79 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +16%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Sparkle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $4.80, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $4.80 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +27%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

15 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 43 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 43 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    45

    below average · better than 32% at his level

    26.0% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    39

    well below · better than 13% at his level

    .055 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    40

    well below · better than 16% at his level

    6.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    47

    average · better than 38% at his level

    6 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    37

    well below · better than 9% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .473 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill

    +3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 25th percentile of the cohort, production at the 9th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 25 and his production sits at 9, a gap of +16. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 72th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.0 / 10

  • already at Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

100

AVG

.176

OBP

.242

SLG

.231

OPS

.473

better than 9%

HR

0

SB

1

BB%

6.0

K%

26.0

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market46 listed · 46 eBay-verified · 40 not shown above
Listings
46

46 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$1.65
Median ask
$9.00
Cheapest 1st auto
$3.26
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$3.79

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 40 cards

  • $3.992021 Bowman Arol Vera CPA-AVE 1st Chrome Auto | Los Angeles AngelsPASS
  • $4.492021 Bowman Chrome Arol Vera 1st Bowman Auto - AngelsPASS
  • $4.80AROL VERA 2021 Bowman Chrome SPARKLE REFRACTOR ~ Angels 1st RC AUTO /299PASS
  • $4.99Arol Vera 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Angels PASS
  • $5.732021 1st Bowman Chrome ~ Arol Vera ~ Refractor 420/499 ~ Angels ~ AutoPASS
  • $7.002021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect AUTO Arol Vera AngelsPASS
  • $8.502021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospects #CPA-AVE Arol Vera Refractor On Card Auto /499PASS
  • $9.002021 1st Bowman Chrome Arol Vera Auto Refractor 455/499 Los Angeles AngelsPASS
  • $9.902021 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Arol Vera Auto #CPA-AVE Los Angeles AngelsPASS
  • $9.992021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospects CPA-AVE Arol Vera /499 Refractor Auto Rookie RCPASS
  • $9.99AROL VERA AUTO 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autograph Angels Rookie Card RCPASS
  • $10.402021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 279/499 Arol Vera #CPA-AVE Auto 0e3uPASS
  • $11.992021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Arol Vera Auto PSA 9 Los Angeles Angels #CPA-AVEPASS
  • $12.492021 Bowman Chrome Arol Vera Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-AVE Angels HGA 9.5PASS
  • $12.492021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Prospect Auto Arol Vera AnglesPASS
  • $12.99Arol Vera 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects 1st Autograph #CPA-AVE Auto QTYPASS
  • $13.99AROL VERA 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST RC AUTO #CPA-AVEPASS
  • $13.992021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospects CPA-AVE Arol Vera /499 Refractor Auto Rookie RCPASS
  • $19.99BGS 9.5/10 AROL VERA AUTO 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects Autograph RC GEM MINTPASS
  • $29.392021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor Arol Vera PSA 9 MINT Auto 0i6pPASS
  • $42.042021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Arol Vera PSA 9 MINT Auto 0au4PASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Baseball - 126/150 Blue 1st Auto #CPA-AVE Angels - AROL VERAPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Arol Vera Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-AVE AngelsPASS
  • —Arol Vera 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Auto AngelsPASS
  • —Arol Vera 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect On Card Auto LOS ANGELES ANGELSPASS
  • —Arol Vera 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto CPA-AVEPASS
  • —Arol Vera 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman SPECKLE Refractor Auto /299PASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Arol Vera 1st Prospect Auto #CPA-AVEPASS
  • —Arol Vera - 2021 Bowman 097/499 Chrome Prospect Auto Refractor 1st Bowman - LAAPASS
  • —Arol Vera 2021 Bowman Chrome First Auto PSA 10 GEM MINTPASS
  • —PSA 10 AROL VERA AUTO 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome SPECKLE REFRACTOR #/299 GEM MINTPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Arol Vera CPAAVE Prospect Auto PSA 9PASS
  • —AROL VERA 2021 Bowman Chrome Refractor RC Auto 494/499 PSA 10 Angels 1st RookiePASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Arol Vera Prospect Auto #CPA-AVE PSA 9 MINT - AngelsPASS
  • —Arol Vera 2021 Bowman Chrome First Auto PSA 10 GEM MINT - Angels RCPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome AROL VERA /299 AUTO SPECKLE REFRACTOR PSA 10PASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Arol Vera Prospect Auto Refractor/499 PSA 10 GEM MINT -AngelsPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Arol Vera Prospect Auto # CPA-AVE PSA 10 GEM MINT - AngelsPASS
  • —2021 Bowman Chrome Arol Vera Purple Refractor Auto # CPA-AVE PSA 9/Auto 10PASS
  • —Arol Vera 2021 Bowman 1st Chrome Green Refractor Auto /99 Los Angeles Angels RCPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now