Max Wagner
3B · Double-A · 25.0y · #2110 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
48 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
8 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
We can't see what this costs all in, so there's nothing to judge yet.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Max Wagner scores 48 out of 100 (#2110 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: plus-plus — .280 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 94% at his level.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 38 on the 20–80 scale (34.6% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The signal
Contact: well below
34.6% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Power: plus-plus
.280 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 94% at his level.
Premium position
3B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
Big power for his level (94th percentile); 3B is a position the hobby pays up for.
OPS improving
.640 last season to .862 this one.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Swing-and-miss
Contact grades 38 on the 20–80 scale (34.6% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-MW — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 2 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 2 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-MW
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 2 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, /250 at $13.87 costs 1.46× base, and print run alone suggests 1.30×, with no measured sales to check it against — best balance available. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
8 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 8 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 2 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman #CPA-MW Max Wagner 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 816d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.50
modeled ~$9.99
LOTTERY
Max Wagner 1st 2024 Bowman Auto Chrome Prospect Card Baltimore Orioles
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 279d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$9.99
modeled ~$9.99
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor 63/250 Max Wagner #CPA-MW Auto lz7
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$13.87
modeled ~$22.50
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Max Wagner #CPA-MW BGS 9 Mint Rookie Auto
base · BGS 9 · listed 438d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$14.99
no sold price
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 17/299 Max Wagner #CPA-MW Auto lz7
/299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 4d
Not a core card · 4 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$17.32
modeled ~$14.27
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome Max Wagner Prospect Auto Base #CPAMW PSA 10 GEM MINT Orioles
base · PSA 10 · listed 54d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$34.95
modeled ~$122.94
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $9.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $9.50 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $17.32, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $17.32 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +82%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $13.87, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $13.87 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -20%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 50 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
38
well below · better than 12% at his level
34.6% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
66
plus-plus · better than 94% at his level
.280 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
49
average · better than 46% at his level
9.6% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
45
below average · better than 30% at his level
7 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
60
plus · better than 85% at his level · the result, not a skill
.862 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
48
average · better than 42% at his level · context, not a skill
-1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 46th percentile of the cohort, production at the 85th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 97% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 46 and his production sits at 85, a gap of -39. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 3th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.2 / 10
- already at Double-A
- old for Double-A
- hitting well — 0.862 OPS in 260 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
260
AVG
.246
OBP
.336
SLG
.526
OPS
.862
better than 85%
HR
18
SB
3
BB%
9.6
K%
34.6
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season — .640 up to .862 OPS.
Still at Double-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.640▲.862
Power
.121▲.280
Walks
10.4%→9.6%
Strikeouts
30.5%▲34.6%
Last season, 347 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market8 listed · 8 eBay-verified · 2 not shown above
- Listings
- 8
- Lowest seen
- $9.50
- Median ask
- $14.43
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $9.50
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
8 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.
The other 2 cards
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run