Thomas Sosa
CF · Double-A · 21.0y · #481 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
65 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
3 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2024 Bowman Chrome Thomas Sosa 1st Auto… at $16.59. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Solid prospect, untested market.
Thomas Sosa scores 65 out of 100 (#481 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Speed: below average
4 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Power: above average
.175 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 69% at his level.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Double-A.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
CF is a position the hobby pays up for.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-TS — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-TS
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, Base at $16.59 — the numbered ones cost more than they are worth, on print run alone. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
3 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 3 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 3 worth looking at, best first.
2024 Bowman Chrome Thomas Sosa 1st Auto #CPA-TS Baltimore Orioles
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 36d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$16.59
modeled ~$12.62
LOTTERY
2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-TS Thomas Sosa Prospect Autograph Auto 1st
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 39d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$12.62
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome #CPA-TS Thomas Sosa Prospect Autograph Auto 1st
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 66d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$12.62
NEEDS EVIDENCE
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Thomas Sosa, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $8.29–$17.42, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $16.59, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $16.59 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
What he is good atSkills 48 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 48 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
47
average · better than 39% at his level
27.2% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
55
above average · better than 69% at his level
.175 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
46
below average · better than 33% at his level
8.4% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 24% at his level
4 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
50
average · better than 50% at his level · the result, not a skill
.711 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 41th percentile of the cohort, production at the 50th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 41 and his production sits at 50, a gap of -9. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 34th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.2 / 10
- already at Double-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
415
AVG
.232
OBP
.304
SLG
.407
OPS
.711
better than 50%
HR
13
SB
3
BB%
8.4
K%
27.2
Is this player getting better?
About the same as last season — .716 to .711 OPS.
Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.716→.711
Power
.185→.175
Walks
9.4%▼8.4%
Strikeouts
24.1%▲27.2%
Last season, 191 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market3 listed · 3 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 3
- Lowest seen
- $16.59
- Median ask
- $16.59
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $16.59
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- —
3 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 2 days ago.
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same