Leandro Arias
SS · High-A · 21.0y · #1968 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
50 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
34 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO… at $21.42. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Leandro Arias scores 50 out of 100 (#1968 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 90% of the players there.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Contact: above average
21.9% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 67% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
What the hobby pays up for
SS is a position the hobby pays up for.
OPS improving
.588 last season to .736 this one.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
Nothing of his has confirmed sold, so there is no value to measure against. Among the asks alone, No base auto listed — cheapest numbered option shown; premium ratio unavailable. That is a comparison of sellers, not evidence of what these are worth, and it rests on the print-run assumption rather than measured premiums.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
34 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 34 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 28 are under "The whole live market".
2023 Leandro Arias 1st Bowman Chrome Blue Lunar Crater Auto Card /150 #CPA-LA
/150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 390d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$14.52
modeled ~$5.50
LOTTERY
Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR 086/250 Orioles z2
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$16.40
modeled ~$20.00
LOTTERY
Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR 086/250 Orioles z2
/250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 12d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$16.41
modeled ~$20.00
LOTTERY
Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO SPECKLE REFRACTOR 285/299 Orioles z3
/299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$19.40
modeled ~$14.27
LOTTERY
Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO SPECKLE REFRACTOR 285/299 Orioles z3
/299 · raw · condition not stated · listed 12d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$19.41
modeled ~$14.27
LOTTERY
Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Sapphire GREEN Refractor 44/50 RC z1
/50 · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$21.42
modeled ~$95.00
LOTTERY
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Leandro Arias, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $7.26–$15.25, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder9 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $19.62, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $19.62 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $19.40, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $19.40 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -1%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $16.40, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $16.40 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -16%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Lunar /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $14.52, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $14.52 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -12%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $34.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $34.98 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +141%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.42, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.42 live
- Scarcity
- 100 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -39%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.42, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.42 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- 0%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $79.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $79.99 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +273%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $21.42, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $21.42 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -73%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
12 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A
What he is good at
skills overall 51 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
54
above average · better than 67% at his level
21.9% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
47
average · better than 38% at his level
.108 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
52
average · better than 57% at his level
12.3% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
52
average · better than 57% at his level
19 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
52
average · better than 57% at his level · the result, not a skill
.736 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
63
plus · better than 90% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 57th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 57, a gap of -2. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 46th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.6 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
375
AVG
.260
OBP
.368
SLG
.368
OPS
.736
better than 57%
HR
6
SB
12
BB%
12.3
K%
21.9
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season — .588 up to .736 OPS.
Still at High-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.588▲.736
Power
.054▲.108
Walks
10.7%▲12.3%
Strikeouts
16.7%▲21.9%
Last season, 299 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market34 listed · 34 eBay-verified · 28 not shown above
- Listings
- 34
- Lowest seen
- $14.52
- Median ask
- $30.50
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $14.52
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $14.52
34 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 28 cards
- $21.42Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Prospect GREEN REFRACTOR 39/99 RC z1LOTTERY
- $21.42Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Prospect ATOMIC Refractor 086/100 z1LOTTERY
- $23.072023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Leandro Arias Auto 1pi9LOTTERY
- $33.242023 Bowman Chrome Auto True Blue Refractor /150 Leandro Arias 1st SGC 10 / 9.5NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $34.282023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Green Refractor 83/99 Leandro Arias #CPA-LA Auto ji9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $34.98Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Prospect BLUE Refractor 028/150 RC z11NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $36.292023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 219/499 Leandro Arias PSA 9 MINT Auto 10z2NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $49.99Leandro Arias PSA 9 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO GOLD Shimmer REFRACTOR /50 z2NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $74.98Leandro Arias PSA 10 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Prospect BLUE Refractor /150 z2NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $79.99Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Prospect GOLD REFRACTOR 27/50 RC z1NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $79.99Leandro Arias PSA 9 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO Sapphire ORANGE REFRACTOR /25 z1NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $101.492023 Bowman Leandro Arias #CPA-LA Chrome Auto Gold Refractor /50 1st ProspectNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Leandro Arias 2023 1st Bowman Chrome AUTO PURPLE REFRACTOR /250NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Leandro Arias 1st Purple Auto # 117/250 + Refractor Auto /499NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 TOPPS BOWMAN CHROME LEANDRO ARIAS #CPA-LA /499 REFRACTOR 1ST BOWMAN AUTO OCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Auto Leandro Arias #CPALA Blue Crater Refractor /150 PSA 9 RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Atomic Refractor /100 Leandro Arias PSA 9 AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Leandro Arias Bowman Chrome Green Grass Refractor Auto /99 Orioles PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Leandro Arias Orang 1st Auto #/25 PSA 9 🔥🔥🔥 B30NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Leandro Arias Yellow Crater Refractor /75 Orioles RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $23.072023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor /299 Leandro Arias Auto tx9LOTTERY
- $34.562023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor 15/299 Leandro Arias Auto 4o1NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $30.502023 Bowman Sapphire Edition Chrome Prospects Leandro Arias PSA 9 MINT AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $36.292023 Bowman Sapphire Chrome Prospects Leandro Arias PSA 9 MINT Auto 10z2NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2023 Bowman Sapphire Edition Chrome Prospects Leandro Arias SGC 9 Auto 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $19.622023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 319/499 Leandro Arias #CPA-LA Auto 1k9tLOTTERY
- $23.062023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 376/499 Leandro Arias #CPA-LA Auto 3hdLOTTERY
- $68.772023 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 334/499 Leandro Arias #CPA-LA Auto 0j81NEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run