Matthew Ferrara
SS · Low-A · 19.0y · #1596 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Priced fairly
- What to do
- Wait
54 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $7.25, inside the $6.79–10.50 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman CPA-MF…. Player not there yet.
Our take
Fringe prospect, priced about right.
Matthew Ferrara scores 54 out of 100 (#1596 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Speed: plus
38 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 78% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Contact: above average
22.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 64% at his level.
What the hobby pays up for
SS is a position the hobby pays up for; only 19.0 — years of runway.
Why now
5 new copies listed this week
Fresh supply on this exact card. More choice, and more downward pressure.
What could go wrong
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-MF — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 4 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 4 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-MF
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 4 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2026 Topps Bowman Chrome Phillies Matthew Ferrara 1/1 🔥 SUPERFRACTOR AUTO at $19,999, 294436% over the $6.79–10.50 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
1/1 at or under $6.79 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
54 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 54 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 48 are under "The whole live market".
Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman CPA-MF Philadelphia Phillies 1st Bowman CHROME AUTO
base · raw · condition not stated · listed 107d
Player not there yet
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $6.79–10.50
PASS · 26% under
Topps 2026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara Phillies 1st Bowman Chrome Auto CPA-MF
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 0d
Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way
—
sold $6.79–10.50
PASS · 12% under
Topps 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Matthew Ferrara Phillies Auto CPA-MF
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 0d
Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way
—
sold $6.79–10.50
PASS · 12% under
MATTHEW FERRARA 2026 BOWMAN #CPA-MF CHROME AUTO 1ST PROSPECT PHILLIES
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1d
Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way
—
sold $6.79–10.50
PASS
2026 Bowman Chrome Matthew Ferrara 1st Bowman Auto Philadelphia Phillies
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 14d
Player not there yet · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$7.25
sold $6.79–10.50
LOTTERY
2026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara 1st Chrome Prospect Auto CPA-MF Green Refractor /99
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 9d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $12.22–18.90
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder6 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $7.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $7.25 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Speckle /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $16.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $16.99 live
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +134%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.25, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.25 live
- Scarcity
- 250 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -10%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Gold Lava Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $236.08, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $236.08 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1448%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - /5 and underTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $267.49, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $267.49 live
- Scarcity
- 5 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +13%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $19999.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $19999.00 live
- Scarcity
- 1 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +7377%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
What he is good atSkills 53 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A
What he is good at
skills overall 53 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
54
above average · better than 64% at his level
22.5% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
53
above average · better than 61% at his level
.135 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
48
average · better than 42% at his level
10.7% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
58
plus · better than 78% at his level
38 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
50
average · better than 51% at his level · the result, not a skill
.700 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 61th percentile of the cohort, production at the 51th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 61 and his production sits at 51, a gap of +10. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 65th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.2 / 10
- nothing stands out either way
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
440
AVG
.232
OBP
.333
SLG
.367
OPS
.700
better than 51%
HR
6
SB
28
BB%
10.7
K%
22.5
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season — .470 up to .700 OPS — but last season was a small sample, so go easy on it.
Still at Low-A, the same level as last season.
OPS
.470▲.700
Power
.074▲.135
Walks
7.8%▲10.7%
Strikeouts
35.9%▼22.5%
Last season, 64 times at bat — a small enough sample that these gaps might just be luck. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market54 listed · 54 eBay-verified · 48 not shown above
- Listings
- 54
- Lowest seen
- $7.25
- Median ask
- $13.99
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $7.25
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $15.25
54 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 48 cards
- $7.35Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman Chrome #CPA-MF 1st Prospect AutoLOTTERY
- —2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Matthew Ferrara Auto #CPA-MF Gold /75PASS
- —2026 Bowman 1st Matthew Ferrara True Green Refractor Chrome Auto #d/99PASS
- $15.25Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st #CPA-MF Purple Refractor Auto /250LOTTERY
- $16.99MATTHEW FERRARA 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Speckle Auto /299 CPA-MFLOTTERY
- $236.082026 Bowman Chrome Prospect Gold Lava Refractor 43/50 Matthew Ferrara Auto 9suPASS
- $267.492026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara 1st Snack Pack Peanut Refactor AUTO /5 #CPA-MFPASS
- —2026 1st Bowman Auto Matthew Ferrara Orange Shimmer /25 #CPA-MF PHILLIES CHASEPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor 73/150 Matthew Ferrara #CPA-MF AutoPASS
- —2026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara 1st True Orange Auto /25PASS
- $10.982026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara Chrome Auto Autograph 1st Prospect #CPA-MF PhilliesPASS
- $10.992026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect On-Card Auto #CPA-MFPASS
- $11.002026 Bowman Chrome #CPA-MF Matthew Ferrara 1st Auto Philadelphia PhilliesPASS
- $11.762026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect On-Card Auto #CPA-MFPASS
- $11.892026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara 1st Chrome AUTO #CPA-MF Philadelphia PhilliesPASS
- $11.98Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman CPA-MF Philadelphia Phillies 1st Bowman CHROME AUTOPASS
- $11.982026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect On-Card Auto #CPA-MFPASS
- $11.982026 Bowman - Matthew Ferrara 1st Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-MF PhilliesPASS
- $12.00Topps 2026 Bowman Chrome Matthew Ferrara Phillies CPA-MF 1st Bowman Auto RCPASS
- $12.95Matthew Ferrara Auto 2026 Bowman Chrome 1stPASS
- $12.992026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara Chrome Auto 1st Prospect Phillies DD5PASS
- $13.20Topps 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Matthew Ferrara Phillies #CPA-MFPASS
- $13.50Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman CPA-MF Philadelphia Phillies 1st Bowman CHROME AUTOPASS
- $13.99Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st AUTO #CPA-MF Philadelphia PhilliesPASS
- $14.842026 Bowman Chrome Matthew Ferrara #CPA-MF 1st Bowman AUTO Phillies B1342PASS
- $14.982026 Bowman Chrome Matthew Ferrara 1st Auto - PHILLIES Rookie 1st Bowman Auto PASS
- $15.002026 Bowman Chrome MATTHEW FERRARA #CPA-MF on card auto 1st bowmanPASS
- $15.002026 Bowman Chrome Matthew Ferrara Autograph 1st Auto Phillies #CPA-MFPASS
- $15.702026 Topps Bowman #CPA-MF Matthew Ferrara 1st Chrome Auto PhilliesPASS
- $16.002026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect On-Card Auto #CPA-MFPASS
- $16.902026 Bowman Chrome Matthew Ferrara 1st Bowman Card On-Card Auto Phillies MINT! PASS
- $18.99Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman CPA-MF Philadelphia Phillies 1st Bowman CHROME AUTOPASS
- $19.982026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect On-Card Auto #CPA-MF 🔥PASS
- $20.99Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman CPA-MF Philadelphia Phillies 1st Bowman CHROME AUTOPASS
- $19999.002026 Topps Bowman Chrome Phillies Matthew Ferrara 1/1 🔥 SUPERFRACTOR AUTOPASS
- —Topps Bowman Chrome 2026 Matthew Ferrara Phillies 1st Auto CPA-MF MLBPASS
- —Topps 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Matthew Ferrara CPA-MF Auto PhilliesPASS
- —Topps 2026 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto #CPA-MF Matthew Ferrara PhilliesPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Matthew Ferrara Auto #CPA-MF PhilliesPASS
- —2026 Bowman CHROME CPA-MF Matthew Ferrara Philadelphia Phillies 1st Bowman AUTOPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Matthew Ferrara Auto Philadelphia Phillies ProspectPASS
- —Bowman 2026 Chrome Matthew Ferrara 1st Bowman Rookie Auto CPA-MF PhilliesPASS
- —2026 Bowman Matthew Ferrara Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-MF PhilliesPASS
- —2026 Bowman Chrome Matthew Ferrara Autograph 1st Auto Phillies #CPA-MFPASS
- —2026 1st Bowman Chrome Matthew Ferrara True On Card Auto CPA-MFPASS
- —Matthew Ferrara 2026 Bowman CPA-MF Philadelphia Phillies 1st Bowman CHROME AUTOPASS
- —Bowman 2025 Chrome 1st Bowman Rookie Auto Matthew Ferrara CPA-MF - PhilliesPASS
- —2026 Bowman CHROME CPA-MF Matthew Ferrara, Philadelphia Phillies 1st Bowman AUTOPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run