Robert Arias
CF · Hill City Howlers · Low-A · 19.0y · #109 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- STRONG PROSPECT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
79 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
11 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is Robert Arias 1st Bowman Chrome 2024 RC Base…. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Strong prospect, untested market.
Robert Arias scores 79 out of 100 (#109 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
We have 1 confirmed sale of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: thin comp evidence — 1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
The signal
Young for the level
+2.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Speed: plus-plus
66 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 93% at his level.
The case is strengthening
Baseball momentum 69/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Moved up and held it
Rookie to Low-A.
Premium position
CF — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Contact: plus
14.2% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 91% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Thin comp evidence
1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-RA — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 3 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 3 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-RA
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 3 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
11 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 11 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 5 are under "The whole live market".
2024 Bowman Chrome 1st Robert Arias Auto #CPA-RA
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$31.95
modeled ~$39.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Robert Arias Gold Shimmer 1st Auto Last Print 50/50 Guardians
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 93d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$306.20
modeled ~$320.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Robert Arias Auto Reptilian Refractor 1st Bowman /150 PSA 10
/150 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 179d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$307.00
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
ROBERT ARIAS 2024 BOWMAN CHROME HTA CHOICE 1ST ROOKIE AUTO /150 PSA 10 Low Pop
/150 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 123d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$346.00
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2024 Bowman Chrome Robert Arias 1st Prospect Gold Mini Diamond Auto /50 PSA 9
/50 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 117d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
$349.99
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Robert Arias 1st Bowman Chrome 2024 RC Base Auto Guardians Prospect
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 10d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled ~$39.99
NEEDS EVIDENCE
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $31.95, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $31.95 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- nothing listed
- Scarcity
- 299 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Gold Shimmer /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $306.20, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $306.20 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
Premium from asking prices, not sales
6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 61 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A
What he is good at
skills overall 61 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
63
plus · better than 91% at his level
14.2% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
57
above average · better than 75% at his level
.171 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
57
above average · better than 75% at his level
15.3% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
65
plus-plus · better than 93% at his level
66 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
61
plus · better than 86% at his level · the result, not a skill
.859 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+2.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 84th percentile of the cohort, production at the 86th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.
Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.
How this is read: his skills average 84 and his production sits at 86, a gap of -2. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 46th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 5.8 / 10
- hitting well — 0.859 OPS in 190 PA (not ranked against his level)
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
190
AVG
.291
OBP
.397
SLG
.462
OPS
.859
better than 86%
HR
5
SB
21
BB%
15.3
K%
14.2
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .791 to .859 after moving up to Low-A. That is the shape of a breakout.
Moved up from Rookie to Low-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.791▲.859
Power
.115▲.171
Walks
14.6%→15.3%
Strikeouts
11.1%▲14.2%
Last season, 198 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold for1 logged sale
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
- 2026-08-26 — $125.00 plus $1.25 shipping · /299 · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market11 listed · 11 eBay-verified · 5 not shown above
- Listings
- 11
- Lowest seen
- $31.95
- Median ask
- $307.00
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $31.95
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $306.20
11 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 5 cards
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Robert Arias Green Lava Refractor 1ST RC AUTO /99 PSA 10 📈🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Robert Arias 1st Bowman Auto Guardians Prospect AutographNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Topps 2024 Bowman Chrome Robert Arias 1st Bowman Prospect Auto PSA 10 #CPARANEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2024 Bowman Chrome Robert Arias 1st Prospect Gold Mini Diamond Auto /50 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —🔥 2024 Bowman Chrome ROBERT ARIAS #CPA-RA 1st Bowman Auto Gold Shimmer/50 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run