Peyton Williams
1B · Triple-A · 25.0y · #1661 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- FRINGE
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Watch
53 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
6 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.
Our take
Fringe prospect, untested market.
Peyton Williams scores 53 out of 100 (#1661 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 37 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+1.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 74% of the players there.
Plate discipline: well below
2.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Power: plus
.222 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 79% at his level.
Moved up and held it
Double-A to Triple-A.
Bat-first profile
1B — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.
What the hobby pays up for
1B sells at a discount at equal production; 25.0 is old for a prospect card.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
37 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Corner-only profile
1B carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2023 Bowman Chrome Peyton Williams 1st Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-PW Blue Jays at $10, 100% over the $5–10 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
That card at or under $5 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- On his best-priced card: past the window.
- A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.
What is for sale right now
6 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 6 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first.
2023 Peyton Williams Bowman Chrome 1st GREEN PROSPECT RC AUTO #9/99 PSA 10 🔥
/99 · PSA 10 · listed 334d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$279.98
no sold price
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2023 Bowman Chrome 1st GREEN REFRACTOR PROSPECT ROOKIE AUTO Peyton Williams 3/99
/99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 882d
Past the window · 3 other things in the way
$262.50
modeled $9–18
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Peyton Williams 1st Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-PW Blue Jays
Blue · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
$10.00
sold $5–10
PASS
Peyton Williams 2023 Bowman 1st Chrome Auto Autograph Toronto Blue Jays
Blue · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 3d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 52h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $5–10
PASS
2023 Bowman Chrome Peyton Williams 1st Prospect Autograph Auto Rookie Blue Jays
Blue · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 932d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $5–10
PASS
2022 Peyton Williams 1st Bowman Chrome Prospects Auto Rookie Blue Jays
Blue · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1030d
Past the window · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $5–10
PASS
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder2 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BlueTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $10.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $10.00 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $262.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $262.50 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +2525%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 45 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A
What he is good at
skills overall 45 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
44
below average · better than 28% at his level
27.0% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
58
plus · better than 79% at his level
.222 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
35
well below · better than 7% at his level
2.7% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
44
below average · better than 29% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
53
above average · better than 62% at his level · the result, not a skill
.797 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level · context, not a skill
+1.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 36th percentile of the cohort, production at the 62th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 87% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 36 and his production sits at 62, a gap of -26. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 13th percentile.
Will he get there?
Real chance 6.3 / 10
- already at Triple-A
- old for Triple-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
37
AVG
.278
OBP
.297
SLG
.500
OPS
.797
better than 62%
HR
2
SB
0
BB%
2.7
K%
27.0
Is this player getting better?
Hitting better than last season even though the pitching got harder — .633 to .797 after moving up to Triple-A. That is the shape of a breakout.
Moved up from Double-A to Triple-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.633▲.797
Power
.136▲.222
Walks
7.9%▼2.7%
Strikeouts
31.9%▼27.0%
Last season, 329 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market6 listed · 6 eBay-verified
- Listings
- 6
- Lowest live
- $10.00
- Median ask
- $262.50
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $10.00
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $262.50
6 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run