Deal Sniper

Carson Williams

SS · Triple-A · 23.0y · #1306 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

57 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

14 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is 2021 Bowman Draft Carson Williams 1st…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Carson Williams scores 57 out of 100 (#1306 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (32.7% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +3.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 95% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    32.7% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • OPS slipping

    .765 last season to .712 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .234 last season to .163 this one.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: plus

    29 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 80% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 39 on the 20–80 scale (32.7% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

14 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 14 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 8 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Auto Carson Williams /499 PSA 9 w/ a 10 Auto Grade

    /499 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 372d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    modeled $48.30

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Carson Williams 1st Auto Purple Refractor /250 PSA 9

    /250 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 261d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    sold $47

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Carson Williams #CDA-CW Auto 3ir

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 5d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $69.64

    modeled ~$10.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Carson Williams #CDA-CW Auto 14ns

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 7d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $112.17

    modeled ~$10.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Sapphire Carson Williams 1st Bowman PSA 10 Auto Refract

    Sapphire · PSA 10 · listed 104d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $250.00

    modeled ~$122.94

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Carson Williams 2021 Bowman Draft Chrome Rookie 1st Card RC Auto PSA 10 #CDA-CW

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 711d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $269.00

    modeled ~$124.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Carson Williams, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $34.82–$73.12, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in psa 10 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 10 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $269.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $269.00 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • SapphireTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $250.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $250.00 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -7%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $299.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $299.50 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +20%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $299.18, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $299.18 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -0%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Sparkle /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $305.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $305.98 live
    Scarcity
    71 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +2%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

9 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    39

    well below · better than 13% at his level

    32.7% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    52

    average · better than 58% at his level

    .163 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    53

    above average · better than 61% at his level

    11.9% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    58

    plus · better than 80% at his level

    29 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    47

    average · better than 39% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .712 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    66

    plus-plus · better than 95% at his level · context, not a skill

    +3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 53th percentile of the cohort, production at the 39th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 53 and his production sits at 39, a gap of +14. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 69th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.4 / 10

  • already at Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

395

AVG

.227

OBP

.322

SLG

.390

OPS

.712

better than 39%

HR

11

SB

19

BB%

11.9

K%

32.7

Is this player getting better?

Down from .765 to .712 OPS this season.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.765▼.712

Power

.234▼.163

Walks

12.4%→11.9%

Strikeouts

34.1%▼32.7%

Last season, 451 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market14 listed · 14 eBay-verified · 8 not shown above
Listings
14

14 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$69.64
Median ask
$299.18
Cheapest 1st auto
$250.00
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$299.18

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 8 cards

  • $299.182021 BOWMAN Draft CARSON WILLIAMS 1st Bowman Chrome Green AUTO /99 PSA 10 RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $299.502021 Bowman Draft Carson Williams 1st Auto Purple Refractor /250 PSA 10 RaysNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $304.99Carson Williams 2021 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Aqua Lava On-Card Auto /199 SGC 10!NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $305.982021 Bowman Draft Carson Williams Chrome Draft Pick Auto Sparkle /71 RC PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —🔥⚾️2025 Bowman Chrome Auto,Carson Williams Mojo Refractor 051/150 TRUE BLUE🔥⚾️NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Draft Carson Williams 1st Chrome BLUE WAVE AUTO /150 Rays Pack FreshNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —CARSON WILLIAMS 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1ST PSA MINT 10 AUTO 9 #CDACW RAYS RC 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $324.99CARSON WILLIAMS 2021 Bowman Draft 1st Edition Green Refractor Auto PSA 9 POP 1PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now