Deal Sniper

Alirio Ferrebus

C · Jersey Shore BlueClaws · High-A · 20.0y · #3230 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

42 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

16 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Alirio Ferrebus 2025 Bowman Chrome Green… at $236. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Alirio Ferrebus scores 42 out of 100 (#3230 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

His core Bowman card has been selling at $10–17 off 1 confirmed sale.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 21 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +3.0y vs his level at High-A — younger than 97% of the players there.

  • Power: well below

    .000 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • OPS slipping

    .547 last season to .295 this one.

  • Power slipping

    .056 last season to .000 this one.

  • Contact: plus-plus

    9.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 98% at his level.

  • Moved up and held it

    Low-A to High-A.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Small sample

    21 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how raw base 1st bowman chrome auto sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-AF — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 7 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

$10.04–16.73midpoint $13.38

Evidence limited· 1 salemost recent 2026-08-24 · 7 listed now

7 days
not enough sales
30 days
not enough sales
90 days
not enough sales

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-AF

Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto

The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 7 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-AF ALIRIO FERREBUS 1st Prospect RC Phillies at $23.94, 79% over the $13.38 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $13.38 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

16 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 16 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 10 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Orange Shimmer Refractor Alirio Ferrebus Auto /25 #CPA-AF

    /25 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 58d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $381.85

    modeled $18.06–70.25

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome Alirio Ferrebus 1st Auto Gold Shimmer Refractor /50

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 88d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $287.00

    modeled $14.45–56.20

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2025 Bowman Chrome ALIRIO FERREBUS gold shimmer refractor auto 26/50 - RC - 1st

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 96d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $305.98

    modeled $14.45–56.20

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Alirio Ferrebus 2025 Bowman Chrome Green Lava 1st Auto /99 PSA 9

    /99 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 8d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $235.98

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • Topps 2025 Bowman Chrome Alirio Ferrebus Phillies 1st RC Auto Green /99

    /99 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 5d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $10.84–42.15

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • ALIRIO FERREBUS 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Speckle Refractor /299 Auto Autograph

    /299 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 52h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $58.00

    modeled $7.53–29.27

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Alirio Ferrebus, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $9.95–$20.89, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder5 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $19.90, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $19.90 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $46.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $46.99 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +136%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Speckle Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $58.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $58.00 live
    Scarcity
    299 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +23%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Gold Shimmer Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $287.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $287.00 live
    Scarcity
    50 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +395%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Orange Shimmer Refractor /25 and underTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $381.85, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $381.85 live
    Scarcity
    25 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +33%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

1 listing sits in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 50 on the 20–80 scale, against 492 hitters at High-A

What he is good at

skills overall 50 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 492 hitters at High-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    71

    plus-plus · better than 98% at his level

    9.5% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    36

    well below · better than 8% at his level

    .000 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    37

    well below · better than 10% at his level

    4.8% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    55

    above average · better than 69% at his level

    29 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    31

    bottom of the scale · better than 3% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .295 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    69

    plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill

    +3.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 46th percentile of the cohort, production at the 3th — his tools run further ahead of his results than 99% of the players he is measured against.

The market prices the stat line, and his is behind what he is doing. That is where a card is cheap for a reason that can change.

How this is read: his skills average 46 and his production sits at 3, a gap of +43. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 492 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 99th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.3 / 10

  • nothing stands out either way

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.

How he is playingThe High-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 492 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

21

AVG

.105

OBP

.190

SLG

.105

OPS

.295

better than 3%

HR

0

SB

1

BB%

4.8

K%

9.5

Is this player getting better?

Down from .547 to .295 OPS, but he moved up to High-A — a step back at a harder level is normal.

Moved up from Low-A to High-A — the pitching is harder this year.

OPS

.547▼.295

Power

.056▼.000

Walks

3.4%▲4.8%

Strikeouts

16.1%▼9.5%

Last season, 174 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market16 listed · 16 eBay-verified · 10 not shown above
Listings
16

16 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$19.90
Median ask
$52.50
Cheapest 1st auto
$19.90
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$46.99

Latest eBay verification: 14 hours ago.

The other 10 cards

  • —2025 Bowman Chrome - 1st Prospect Auto Speckle Refractor Alirio Ferrebus /299PASS
  • $46.99Alirio Ferrebus 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto /499 CPA-AF ProspectPASS
  • $19.90ALIRIO FERREBUS 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Base Auto Autograph #CPA-AFLOTTERY
  • $20.00Alirio Ferrebus 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Prospect Auto Phillies #CPA-AFLOTTERY
  • $21.352025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autograph Alirio Ferrebus #CPA-AF 1st Auto PhilliesLOTTERY
  • $23.942025 Bowman Chrome Auto #CPA-AF ALIRIO FERREBUS 1st Prospect RC PhilliesLOTTERY
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Prospects Alirio Ferrebus CPA-AF Auto 1stPASS
  • —2025 Alirio Ferrebus💎1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto #CPA-AF Phillies🔥🔥🔥PASS
  • —Alirio Ferrebus 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Auto PhilliesPASS
  • —2025 Bowman Chrome Alirio Ferrebus Refractor Rookie Auto /499 PhilliesPASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now