Aron Estrada
2B · Double-A · 21.0y · #119 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- STRONG PROSPECT
- The market
- Untested
- What to do
- Wait
78 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
20 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.
Closest of his is 2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-AES Aron Estrada… at $131. Waiting on sales.
Our take
Strong prospect, untested market.
Aron Estrada scores 78 out of 100 (#119 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
We have 2 confirmed sales of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.
Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: thin comp evidence — 2 confirmed sales in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Double-A — younger than 97% of the players there.
Plate discipline: well below
4.7% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Contact: plus
17.2% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 87% at his level.
The case is strengthening
Baseball momentum 83/100 — ahead of the thesis. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Moved up and held it
High-A to Double-A.
Premium position
2B — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Thin comp evidence
2 confirmed sales in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.
Modeled value only
The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.
Benchmark not checklist-verified
His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.
What the hobby pays for him
Benchmark card: 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-AES — raw, base, unnumbered.
Described by 8 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.
No price on this card yet
sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 8 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.
This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto CPA-AES
Raw base 1st Bowman Chrome Auto
The canonical prospect vehicle — every player who has one is compared on it. Identified from 8 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.
A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
Insufficient market evidence
No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.
What would make this a buy
- Waiting on sales
- Player not there yet
What is for sale right now
20 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 20 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 14 are under "The whole live market".
Aron Estrada 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Base Auto Aron Estrada #CPA-AES
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 90h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$35.74
modeled ~$22.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
ARON ESTRADA - 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Auto #CPA-AES Orioles
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$38.00
modeled ~$22.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Chrome 1st #CPA-AES Aron Estrada Autograph Auto Orioles
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 8d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$39.98
modeled ~$22.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Auto Aron Estrada #CPA-AES Baltimore Orioles
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 14d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$43.49
modeled ~$22.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Chrome Aron Estrada 1st Auto /499 Refractor #CPA-AES PSA 9 Mint
/499 · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 8d
Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$105.24
modeled ~$55.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 228/499 Aron Estrada #CPA-AES Auto 8g8
/499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 3d
Not a core card · 3 other things in the way
Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman
$108.97
modeled ~$51.00
NEEDS EVIDENCE
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Aron Estrada, just what the money can do today.
- Pedro Ramírezbase$35.94Watch14% under fair value
Compared within $17.87–$37.53, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder7 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $35.74 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $108.97, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $108.97 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +205%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Grass Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $130.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $130.99 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +20%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $135.48, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $135.48 live
- Scarcity
- 99 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +3%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Yellow /99THIN EVIDENCE
1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- nothing listed
- Scarcity
- 75 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Gold Shimmer /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $345.80, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $345.80 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Lava /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $299.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $299.99 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -13%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 496 hitters at Double-A
What he is good at
skills overall 51 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 496 hitters at Double-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
61
plus · better than 87% at his level
17.2% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
60
plus · better than 83% at his level
.216 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
37
well below · better than 10% at his level
4.7% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
46
below average · better than 34% at his level
9 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
58
plus · better than 78% at his level · the result, not a skill
.816 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
69
plus-plus · better than 97% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 54th percentile of the cohort, production at the 78th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 86% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 54 and his production sits at 78, a gap of -24. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 496 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 14th percentile.
Will he get there?
Strong chance 7.2 / 10
- already at Double-A
- hitting well — 0.816 OPS in 443 PA (not ranked against his level)
- form is climbing
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.
How he is playingThe Double-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 496 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
443
AVG
.283
OBP
.317
SLG
.499
OPS
.816
better than 78%
HR
22
SB
7
BB%
4.7
K%
17.2
Is this player getting better?
About the same as last season — .798 to .816 OPS.
Moved up from High-A to Double-A — the pitching is harder this year.
OPS
.798→.816
Power
.145▲.216
Walks
10.5%▼4.7%
Strikeouts
17.4%→17.2%
Last season, 333 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.
What his cards have sold for2 logged sales
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
Point at a dot to see that sale.
The whole live market20 listed · 20 eBay-verified · 14 not shown above
- Listings
- 20
- Lowest seen
- $35.74
- Median ask
- $119.98
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $35.74
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $105.24
20 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.
The other 14 cards
- $130.992025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-AES Aron Estrada 1st Green Grass Refractor Auto 06/99NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $135.482025 Bowman Chrome | Aron Estrada | 1st Bowman Green Refractor Auto /99 OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $281.992025 Bowman Chrome Aron Estrada 1st Green Lava Refractor Auto /99 #CPAAES PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $299.99Aron Estrada 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto HTA Choice Refractor #/150 PSA 10 GemNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $299.99Aron Estrada GOLD # /50 AUTO 1st Bowman #CPA-AES Lava 2025 Chrome Prospect RC NEEDS EVIDENCE
- $345.802025 Bowman Chrome Prospects ARON ESTRADA 1st Bowman Gold Shimmer Auto /50NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Aron Estrada 1st Auto Speckle /299 CPA-AESNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Aron Estrada 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Refractor Auto /499 OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —ARON ESTRADA - 2025 Bowman Chrome Prospect 1st Auto #CPA-AES OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —Aron Estrada 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto RC #CPA-AES - Baltimore Orioles RookieNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto Aron Estrada #CPA-AES Yellow Refractor /75 O’sNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome 1st #CPA-AES Aron Estrada Autograph Auto OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman 1st Chrome Aron Estrada AUTO ORANGE Reptilian #1/25 FIRST ON PRINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Aron Estrada 1st Auto HTA Choice Mojo Refractor /150 #CPA-AESNEEDS EVIDENCE
Worth reading for this player
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run