Juan Cabada
SS · Low-A · 18.0y · #295 of 7,922 we rate
- The player
- SOLID
- The market
- Expensive
- What to do
- Wait for a better price
70 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.
His best base card asks $15.99, over the $12.99–14.99 that card has sold in.
Closest of his is Juan Cabada 2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JC 1st… at $15.99. Needs a $5 drop.
Our take
Solid prospect, expensive market.
Juan Cabada scores 70 out of 100 (#295 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +3.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 100% of the players there.
Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.
The thing most likely to be wrong here: small sample — 39 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
The signal
Young for the level
+3.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 100% of the players there.
Plate discipline: bottom of the scale
0.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
The case is fading
Baseball momentum 0/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.
Power: plus
.228 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 90% at his level.
Premium position
SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.
Contact: above average
20.5% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball Better than 74% at his level.
Why now
No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.
What could go wrong
Small sample
39 PA this season — too few to read a rate stat off with any confidence.
Nothing has sold
No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.
Asks above the sold band
Every live card of his we can price is asking more than these have actually sold for, so today's entry is at a premium.
What the hobby pays for him
A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.
Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
The card that matters
A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.
Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.
Best value right now
Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.
No good entry today
The closest to fair is 2025 Bowman Chrome JUAN CABADA Prime Chrome Signature Superfractor Auto 1/1 at $5,005, 33832% over the $12.99–14.99 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.
1/1 at or under $12.99 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.
What would make this a buy
- Needs a $5 drop
- Player not there yet
- Juan Cabada 2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JC 1st… at or under $11.80 delivered.
What is for sale right now
23 cards of his are listed, 1 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 22 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 16 are under "The whole live market".
2025 Bowman Chrome Juan Cabada 1st Orange Shimmer Auto /25 Chicago Cubs
/25 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
modeled $38.97–44.97
PASS
🔥Juan Cabada 2025 1st Bowman Chrome Mojo Auto Chicago Cubs Prospect
Mojo · raw · condition not stated · listed 300d
Priced above value · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
—
sold $12.99–14.99
PASS
Juan Cabada 2025 Bowman Chrome #CPA-JC 1st Prospect AUTO Chicago Cubs
base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 2d
Needs a $5 drop · 1 other thing in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$15.99
sold $12.99–14.99
LOTTERY
🔥2025 Bowman Chrome - Juan Cabada 1st Bowman Gold Mini Diamond Auto /50 Cubs
/50 · raw · condition not stated · listed 9d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.
$157.99
sold $52
PASS
2025 1st Bowman Chrome Sapphire Gold Refractor Juan Cabada Auto /50 Cubs
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 25d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$267.00
sold $52
PASS
2025 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Juan Cabada 1st Gold Refractor Auto /50 Chicago Cubs
/50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 118d
Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way
$305.49
sold $52
PASS
What the same money buys today
Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Juan Cabada, just what the money can do today.
- Cole CarriggRefractor$14.98Watch42% under fair value
Compared within $8.00–$16.79, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.
Your research
Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.
Your target
The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.
Your notes
Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.
The evidence
Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.
The parallel ladder8 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales
Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.
Showing Raw autos.
NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT
No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.
- BaseTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $15.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $15.99 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- —
- Blue Mojo RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $38.02, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $38.02 live
- Scarcity
- unnumbered
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +138%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $26.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $26.98 live
- Scarcity
- 499 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -29%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Blue /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $357.50, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $357.50 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1225%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - True Blue Refractor /150THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $179.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $179.99 live
- Scarcity
- 150 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -50%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Mini Diamond /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $157.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $157.99 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- -12%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Sapphire Refractor /50THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $267.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $267.00 live
- Scarcity
- 50 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +69%
Premium from asking prices, not sales - Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE
Listed at $5004.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.
- Sold
- —
- Live
- $5004.99 live
- Scarcity
- 1 made
- Trades
- no sales
- Premium
- +1775%
Premium from asking prices, not sales
6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.
What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A
What he is good at
skills overall 49 / 80
On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.
Contact
Can he hit it?
56
above average · better than 74% at his level
20.5% K
strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball
Power
Can he hit it hard?
63
plus · better than 90% at his level
.228 ISO
isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases
Plate discipline
Does he pick his pitch?
32
bottom of the scale · better than 4% at his level
0.0% BB
walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him
Speed
Can he run?
43
below average · better than 23% at his level
0 SB per 600 PA
stolen bases per full season of plate appearances
Production
Is it showing up in the box score?
60
plus · better than 85% at his level · the result, not a skill
.847 OPS
on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill
Age for the level
Is he doing it young?
80
elite · better than 100% at his level · context, not a skill
+3.0y vs his level
years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level
The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.
The argument
skills at the 48th percentile of the cohort, production at the 85th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 98% of the players he is measured against.
The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.
How this is read: his skills average 48 and his production sits at 85, a gap of -37. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 2th percentile.
Will he get there?
Long shot 4.6 / 10
- young for Low-A
This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 86% of what it wants to know — missing production.
How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season
Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".
PA
39
AVG
.286
OBP
.333
SLG
.514
OPS
.847
better than 85%
HR
2
SB
0
BB%
0.0
K%
20.5
What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet
Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.
No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.
The whole live market23 listed · 23 eBay-verified · 16 not shown above
- Listings
- 23
- Lowest seen
- $15.99
- Median ask
- $274.50
- Cheapest 1st auto
- $15.99
- Cheapest numbered 1st auto
- $26.98
23 eBay-verified
Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.
The other 16 cards
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Juan Cabada True Gold Refractor Auto /50 1st #CPA-JC CubsPASS
- —Juan Cabada 2025 Bowman Chrome 1st Gold Shimmer Refractor Auto /50 CubsPASS
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Juan Cabada Gold 1st Auto /50 Chicago Cubs CPSA-JCPASS
- $179.992025 Bowman Chrome Juan Cabada True Blue Bowman 1st Auto /150 + Wave Refractor!PASS
- $357.502025 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto #CPA-JC Juan Cabada TRUE Blue #/150PASS
- $282.002025 Bowman Chrome Juan Cabada 1st Bowman Auto Green Reptilian /99 PSA 10 CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $282.992025 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st Juan Cabada AUTO BLUE REPTILIAN /150 PSA 9 MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $305.49Juan Cabada 2025 Bowman Chrome Sapphire 1st Gold Refractor Auto /50 PSA 9 CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $355.99Juan Cabada 2025 Bowman Chrome Sapphire Green Refractor 1st RC Auto 10/99 PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
- —2025 Bowman Chrome Juan Cabada #CPA-JC Auto Refractor /499 PSA Chicago CubsNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $312.902025 1st Bowman /150 Juan Cabada * True Blue * PSA Cubs Color Match AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
- $26.982025 Bowman Chrome Juan Cabada Refractor Auto /499 1st #CPA-JC Chicago CubsPASS
- $34.572025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor /499 Juan Cabada #CPA-JC Auto 08jkPASS
- $43.192025 Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor 446/499 Juan Cabada #CPA-JC Auto 1hr9PASS
- $38.022025 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Prospect Mojo Blue Refractor Juan Cabada Auto v9tPASS
- $5004.992025 Bowman Chrome JUAN CABADA Prime Chrome Signature Superfractor Auto 1/1PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him
What this page is missing
Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.
- We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.
Worth reading for this player
- What a modeled fair value means — at least one value on this page was modeled rather than taken from a sale
- Parallel scarcity calculator — numbered parallels of his cards are in play, and print run drives the premium
- Best Offer calculator — at least one of his live listings accepts offers
- Certified vs aftermarket autographs — signed cards of his are listed, and the two kinds are not worth the same
- Parallels and print runs — his market includes numbered parallels, which are priced off the print run