Deal Sniper

Drew Waters

LF · Triple-A · 27.0y · #3737 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

38 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

34 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Something about this card rules it out no matter the price.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Drew Waters scores 38 out of 100 (#3737 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: speed: above average — 21 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 70% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — lF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

The signal

  • Plate discipline: well below

    6.8% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 33/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Speed: above average

    21 SB per 600 PA — stolen bases per full season of plate appearances Better than 70% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    LF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • Power: above average

    .168 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 60% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    27.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Corner-only profile

    LF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: not a core card.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

34 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 34 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 28 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2017 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Drew Waters #CDA-DW Auto 2f0

    base · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $11.28

    modeled ~$8.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 117/499 Drew Waters #CDA-DW Auto 0u68

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $13.01

    modeled ~$11.11

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Drew Waters 2017 Bowman Draft Chrome #BDC90 Rookie Auto PSA

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 233d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $14.94

    modeled ~$127.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Drew Waters Bowman Chrome 1st Refractor Auto RC 30/499 #CDA-DW (J409)

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 84d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 57h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $16.60

    modeled ~$11.11

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2017 Bowman Chrome Draft DREW WATERS RC REFRACTOR AUTO SP /499 - PSA 10

    /499 · PSA 10 · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $18.81

    modeled ~$45.00

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Drew Waters 2017 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Autograph Auto Chrome PSA 10 Braves

    base · PSA 10 · listed 103d

    Past the window · 2 other things in the way

    $22.49

    modeled ~$77.67

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in bgs 9.5 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing BGS 9.5 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $29.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $29.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Blue Wave RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $24.78, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $24.78 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -17%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $40.89, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $40.89 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +65%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Green Refractor /99THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $34.75, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $34.75 live
    Scarcity
    99 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -15%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

25 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 49 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 49 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    46

    below average · better than 35% at his level

    25.3% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    53

    above average · better than 60% at his level

    .168 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    41

    well below · better than 18% at his level

    6.8% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    55

    above average · better than 70% at his level

    21 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    48

    average · better than 41% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .721 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level · context, not a skill

    -1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 46th percentile of the cohort, production at the 41th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 46 and his production sits at 41, a gap of +5. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 55th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 5.6 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

380

AVG

.250

OBP

.303

SLG

.418

OPS

.721

better than 41%

HR

11

SB

13

BB%

6.8

K%

25.3

Is this player getting better?

About the same as last season — .713 to .721 OPS.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.713→.721

Power

.168→.168

Walks

9.1%▼6.8%

Strikeouts

29.0%▼25.3%

Last season, 231 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market34 listed · 34 eBay-verified · 28 not shown above
Listings
34

34 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$11.28
Median ask
$29.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$16.60
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$16.60

Latest eBay verification: 8 hours ago.

The other 28 cards

  • $24.782017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Blue Wave Refractor Drew Waters BGS 9.5 Auto 0jd0PASS
  • $24.992017 Bowman Draft #BDC90 Drew Waters Chrome PSA 10 Authentic AutoPASS
  • $25.00Drew Waters 2017 Bowman Chrome Recommended Viewing BGS Certified AutoPASS
  • $29.982017 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Drew Waters Auto PSA MINT 10 Royals ROOKIE RCPASS
  • $29.99DREW WATERS 2017 Bowman Chrome 1ST SP RC BLUE INK AUTO! BGS AUTHENTICATED! RARE!PASS
  • $29.992017 Bowman Chrome Draft Drew Waters Royals Auto BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 10 RookiePASS
  • $32.502017 1st Bowman Chrome Draft Drew Waters 1st Rookie BGS 9.5 10 AUTO GEM MINTPASS
  • $34.752017 Bowman Chrome Draft DREW WATERS RC Green REFRACTOR AUTO /99 - BGS 9.5/10PASS
  • $35.992017 Bowman Chrome Draft Blue Wave Refractor Auto Drew Waters /150 PSA 9/8 MINTPASS
  • $36.282017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Drew Waters #CDA-DW BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto k0wPASS
  • $36.292017 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Pick Drew Waters #CDA-DW PSA 10 GEM MT Auto 0q21PASS
  • $40.892017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor /250 Drew Waters BGS 9.5 Auto 5j0PASS
  • $53.532017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Drew Waters #CDA-DW BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto n0cPASS
  • $103.572017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Refractor 489/499 Drew Waters #CDA-DW Auto v9tPASS
  • $126.082017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Drew Waters #CDA-DW BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto 0rfPASS
  • $181.082017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Drew Waters #CDA-DW BGS 10 PRISTINE Auto 0rfPASS
  • $207.492017 Bowman Draft Chrome Pick Purple Refractor /250 Drew Waters #CDA-DW Auto r1iPASS
  • —Bowman 2017 Draft Drew Waters Chrome DP Auto RC Black Refractor PSA 10 #CDADWPASS
  • —2017 Bowman Chrome Drew Waters 1st Rookie RC BDC-90 Braves Non AutoPASS
  • —2017 Bowman Chrome Drew Waters Refractor 1st Rookie RC #BDC-90 Non Auto BravesPASS
  • —Drew Waters 2017 1st Bowman Draft #CDA-DW Chrome Auto Atlanta BravesPASS
  • —2017 1st Bowman Chrome #CDA-DW Drew Waters Auto #CDA-DWPASS
  • —2017 Bowman Draft Drew Waters Chrome Draft Pick Auto RC #CDA-DW PSA 10PASS
  • —2017 1st Bowman Chrome Draft Drew Waters RC Authentic Auto PSA 10 PLEASE READPASS
  • —2017 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Drew Waters Auto PSA MINT 10 Royals ROOKIE RCPASS
  • —DREW WATERS 2017 Bowman Draft #BDC-90 Chrome Rookie ON CARD AUTO DNA PSA CERTPASS
  • —DREW WATERS 2017 Bowman Draft #BDC-90 Chrome Rookie ON CARD AUTO DNA PSA CERTPASS
  • —2017 Bowman Chrome Purple Refractor Auto /250 Drew Waters BGS 9.5/9PASS
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now