Deal Sniper

Marco Luciano

SS · Triple-A · 24.0y · #440 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

66 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

22 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Marco Luciano Signed 1st Bowman Chrome Mega… at $29.99. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Marco Luciano scores 66 out of 100 (#440 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: nothing has sold — no confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 33/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: above average

    12.9% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 69% at his level.

  • Premium position

    SS — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: above average

    .184 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 67% at his level.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    SS is a position the hobby pays up for; 24.0 is old for a prospect card.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2019 Bowman Chrome Prospect Marco Luciano #CPA-ML BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto v9t at $93.79, 168% over the $35 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $35 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

22 cards of his are listed, 2 held back on condition or a broken price · 0 of the 20 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 14 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome Marco Luciano 1st Blue Refractor Auto /150 BGS 9.5/10 GEM

    /150 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 1121d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    —

    modeled $52.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Marco Luciano 2019 1st Bowman Chrome Prospect Refractor RC Auto 121/499 BGS 9.5

    /499 · BGS 9.5 · takes offers · listed 811d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $255.50

    modeled $40.25

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome 1st Prospect Blue Refractor Auto #'d /150 Marco Luciano

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 1206d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $381.50

    modeled $54

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor /250 Marco Luciano BGS 9.5 Auto 5j0

    /250 · BGS 9.5 · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $291.09

    modeled $45.50

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2022 Bowman Chrome Scouts Top 100 Auto 1/1 Superfractor Marco Luciano #BTP-7

    1/1 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 451d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    —

    sold $36

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2019 Bowman Chrome Prospect Marco Luciano #CPA-ML BGS 9.5 GEM MINT Auto v9t

    base · BGS 9.5 · listed 3d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $93.79

    sold $35

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Marco Luciano, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $14.50–$30.45, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder4 versions of his cards in psa 9 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 9 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $300.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $300.00 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Purple RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $179.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $179.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -40%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $29.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $29.00 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -84%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Superfractor 1/1THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $3005.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $3005.00 live
    Scarcity
    1 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +10262%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

15 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level

    23.7% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    54

    above average · better than 67% at his level

    .184 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    55

    above average · better than 69% at his level

    12.9% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level

    9 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    55

    above average · better than 70% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .831 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 56th percentile of the cohort, production at the 70th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 56 and his production sits at 70, a gap of -14. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 28th percentile.

Will he get there?

Strong chance 7.2 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.831 OPS in 278 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

278

AVG

.276

OBP

.371

SLG

.460

OPS

.831

better than 70%

HR

10

SB

4

BB%

12.9

K%

23.7

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .748 up to .831 OPS.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.748▲.831

Power

.199→.184

Walks

15.3%▼12.9%

Strikeouts

30.6%▼23.7%

Last season, 555 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market22 listed · 22 eBay-verified · 14 not shown above
Listings
22

22 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$29.00
Median ask
$286.04
Cheapest 1st auto
$29.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$255.50

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 14 cards

  • $29.00PSA 9 AUTO #/150 MARCO LUCIANO 2019 BOWMAN STERLING CHROME AUTOGRAPH YANKEES SSPNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $29.99Marco Luciano Signed 1st Bowman Chrome Mega Auto BCP-82 Rookie Beckett BGS10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $36.442020 Bowman Chrome Prospects BCP-103 Marco Luciano SF GIANTS AUTO AUTOGRAPH PSANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $179.992019 Bowman Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor Marco Luciano PSA 9 MINT Auto 0i7rNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $281.00MARCO LUCIANO 🔥 2019 1st Bowman Chrome Auto RC Gem Mint PSA 10 💎 *HOT ROOKIE*NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $299.99Marco Luciano 1st Bowman AUTO Speckle Refractor /299 | 🔥 BGS 10 PRISTINE 🔥NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $300.002019 Bowman Chrome Marco Luciano 1st Bowman Auto PSA 9 MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $306.49MARCO LUCIANO 2019 BOWMAN CHROME PROSPECTS 1ST ON CARD AUTO PSA 10 GEM MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $355.992019 Bowman Marco Luciano 1st Chrome Prospect Auto Atomic Refractor PSA 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $3005.002024 Bowman Chrome Marco Luciano Rookie Superfractor Auto 1/1 Psa 9 Mint GiantsNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2019 Bowman Chrome Marco Luciano 1st Rookie RC #BCP-82 Giants Non AutoNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Marco Luciano Signed 2019 Bowman Chrome Prospects RC Rookie AUTO BGS AUTHENTICNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2019 Bowman Chrome Prospects Marco Luciano #BCP-213 Mojo Auto PSANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Marco Luciano SIGNED 2019 1st Bowman Blue Ref /150 Chrome RC Card PSA 9/10 AUTONEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now