Deal Sniper

Heston Kjerstad

LF · Triple-A · 27.0y · #3259 of 7,922 we rate

The player
FRINGE

42 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

13 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Watch

Nobody has logged a completed sale for this card, so we can't say what it's worth.

Our take

Fringe prospect, untested market.

Heston Kjerstad scores 42 out of 100 (#3259 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: power: above average — .176 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 63% at his level.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: corner-only profile — lF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

The signal

  • Plate discipline: well below

    6.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: above average

    .176 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 63% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    LF — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • What the hobby pays up for

    27.0 is old for a prospect card.

  • OPS improving

    .473 last season to .795 this one.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Corner-only profile

    LF carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

  • Modeled value only

    The fair values shown for his live cards are arithmetic from related evidence, not confirmed sales of the exact card.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — no 1st Bowman vehicle observed for this player. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

Insufficient market evidence

No live ask and no confirmed sale on any version of his cards, so there is nothing here to call good or bad value.

What would make this a buy

  • On his best-priced card: past the window.
  • A promotion, or a stretch that lifts the season line, would move the player side of this.

What is for sale right now

13 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 13 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 7 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2020 Bowman Chrome Draft #BDC122 Heston Kjerstad Chrome Auto PSA 10 DNA

    base · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 449d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $29.00

    modeled ~$124.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Heston Kjerstad Bowman Draft Rookie Chrome Psa 9 Auto BD122 Orioles RC

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 130d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $35.00

    modeled ~$22.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Draft Auto Heston Kjerstad #CDA-HK AU, RC) PSA 9

    base · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 109d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $35.24

    modeled ~$22.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Refractor Heston Kjerstad PSA 9 MINT Auto 1i3v

    Refractor · PSA 9 · listed 6d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $63.89

    modeled ~$30.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Draft Chrome Picks Blue Refractor 100/150 Heston Kjerstad Auto 5h0

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 2d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $125.26

    modeled ~$18.50

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2020 Bowman Draft Heston Kjerstad CDA-HK 1st Refractor Auto /499 PSA 10 Orioles

    /499 · PSA 10 · listed 11d

    Not a core card · 3 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $133.98

    modeled ~$45.00

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Heston Kjerstad, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $14.50–$30.45, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 60 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in psa 9 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 9 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $35.00, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $35.00 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • RefractorTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $63.89, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $63.89 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +83%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Blue Wave /150THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $305.98, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $305.98 live
    Scarcity
    150 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +379%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

6 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 46 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 46 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    48

    average · better than 41% at his level

    24.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    53

    above average · better than 63% at his level

    .176 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    40

    well below · better than 16% at his level

    6.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    44

    below average · better than 29% at his level

    0 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    53

    above average · better than 61% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .795 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    48

    average · better than 44% at his level · context, not a skill

    -1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 37th percentile of the cohort, production at the 61th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 86% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 37 and his production sits at 61, a gap of -24. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 14th percentile.

Will he get there?

Real chance 6.1 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • old for Triple-A

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

315

AVG

.285

OBP

.334

SLG

.461

OPS

.795

better than 61%

HR

11

SB

0

BB%

6.0

K%

24.4

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .473 up to .795 OPS.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.473▲.795

Power

.099▲.176

Walks

8.9%▼6.0%

Strikeouts

26.8%▼24.4%

Last season, 112 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market13 listed · 13 eBay-verified · 7 not shown above
Listings
13

13 eBay-verified

Lowest live
$29.00
Median ask
$125.26
Cheapest 1st auto
$133.98
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$133.98

Latest eBay verification: 7 hours ago.

The other 7 cards

  • $284.992020 Bowman Chrome Draft Heston Kjerstad Refractor 1st Prospect Auto #091/499NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $305.982020 Bowman Chrome Draft Heston Kjerstad RC Auto BLUE WAVE 1st /150 PSA 9 MINTNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • $554.952024 Bowman Chrome - Gladiators Auto Heston Kjerstad SUPERFRACTOR 1/1 RC nrmtNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2022 Bowman Chrome Heston Kjerstad Top 100 Superfractor Auto 1/1 BTP-44 OriolesNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Heston Kjerstad 2020 Bowman Chrome Auto Rookie PSA 9/10 #BD122 Orioles RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2024 Bowman Heston Kjerstad Chrome Rookie Auto Blue /150 PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Bowman 2020 Draft Heston Kjerstad Chrome Draft Picks Auto Rookie PSA 9 CDA-HKNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now