Deal Sniper

Nick Montgomery

C · Low-A · 20.0y · #1461 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

55 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

13 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait for a better price

Closest of his is Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Nick…. Priced above value.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Nick Montgomery scores 55 out of 100 (#1461 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.

We have 1 confirmed sale of his cards in the last 90 days, but no standardized benchmark card yet, so the price side rests on whatever is listed rather than on one comparable series.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (34.8% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +1.0y vs his level at Low-A — younger than 83% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    34.8% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Plate discipline: plus

    18.0% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 88% at his level.

  • Premium position

    C — the bat does not have to carry the whole profile.

  • Power: plus

    .190 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 81% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 40 on the 20–80 scale (34.8% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Thin comp evidence

    1 confirmed sale in 90 days. Treat any value here as a single data point, not a price.

  • Benchmark not checklist-verified

    His core card was identified from how sellers describe it, not from a checklist. The identity is likely, not established.

What the hobby pays for him

Benchmark card: 2024 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-NMO — raw, base, unnumbered.

Described by 4 independent sellers — observed, not checklist-verified.

No price on this card yet

sales exist for this player, none on the benchmark card 4 copies are listed right now — asking prices are supply, never evidence of what it sells for.

This is his benchmark, not the value of any particular card in front of you — a /250 is a different market.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

2024 Bowman Draft 1st Auto CPA-NMO

Raw base 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Auto

The draft-class equivalent of the canonical auto — same card kind, other product line. Identified from 4 independent sellers describing it — likely, not established.

A card is never the one to own because it is numbered. Scarcity is a modifier on a vehicle, not a vehicle — a /25 of a card nobody collects is a rarer version of nothing.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor 301/499 Nick Montgomery Auto 0kd8 at $63.84, 1172% over the $5.02 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

/499 at or under $5.02 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Priced above value
  • Player not there yet
  • On his best-priced card: waiting on sales.

What is for sale right now

13 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 13 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 7 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2024 Bowman Draft 1st NICK MONTGOMERY Chrome Sparkle Refractor Auto /71 PSA 10

    /71 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 343d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $351.85

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft 1st NICK MONTGOMERY Chrome Sparkle Refractor Auto /71 PSA 10

    /71 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 319d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $355.85

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Chrome Draft 1st NICK MONTGOMERY Sparkle Refractor Auto /71 PSA 10

    /71 · PSA 10 · takes offers · listed 226d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $356.85

    no sold price

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Nick Montgomery Purple Refractor Auto /250 Braves

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 86d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $16.31

    modeled $2.94–3

    LOTTERY

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Nick Montgomery 1st Purple Auto #226/250!!

    /250 · raw · condition not stated · listed 28d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 56h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    modeled $2.94–3

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Refractor 301/499 Nick Montgomery Auto 0kd8

    /499 · raw · condition not stated · listed 1d

    Not a core card · 4 other things in the way

    Identity uncertain — whether this is a true 1st Bowman

    $63.84

    sold $5.02

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder3 versions of his cards in raw autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing Raw autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • BaseTHIN EVIDENCE

    1 listing watched off the board here, none confirmed sold — no price to judge.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $6.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —
  • Refractor /499THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $63.84, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $63.84 live
    Scarcity
    499 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    +813%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales
  • Purple Refractor /250THIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $16.31, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $16.31 live
    Scarcity
    250 made
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    -75%
    Premium from asking prices, not sales

3 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 51 on the 20–80 scale, against 530 hitters at Low-A

What he is good at

skills overall 51 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 530 hitters at Low-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    40

    well below · better than 16% at his level

    34.8% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    59

    plus · better than 81% at his level

    .190 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    62

    plus · better than 88% at his level

    18.0% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    43

    below average · better than 25% at his level

    3 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    51

    average · better than 53% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .710 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    60

    plus · better than 83% at his level · context, not a skill

    +1.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 53th percentile of the cohort, production at the 53th — the gap between the two is ordinary for this level.

Nothing to arbitrage here: he is producing about what his skills say he should. Judge the card on price and the player on the grades.

How this is read: his skills average 53 and his production sits at 53, a gap of 0. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 529 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 48th percentile.

Will he get there?

Long shot 4.3 / 10

  • nothing stands out either way

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Low-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 530 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

178

AVG

.183

OBP

.337

SLG

.373

OPS

.710

better than 53%

HR

7

SB

1

BB%

18.0

K%

34.8

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .524 up to .710 OPS.

Still at Low-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.524▲.710

Power

.082▲.190

Walks

11.8%▲18.0%

Strikeouts

33.3%▲34.8%

Last season, 357 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold for1 logged sale

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

Only 1 sale logged so far. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
  • 2026-08-26 — $4.00 plus $1.25 shipping · tracked disappearance — not a confirmed sale proof
The whole live market13 listed · 13 eBay-verified · 7 not shown above
Listings
13

13 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$6.99
Median ask
$19.32
Cheapest 1st auto
$6.99
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$16.31

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 7 cards

  • $6.992024 Bowman Draft #CPA-NMO Nick Montgomery 1st Chrome Auto Atlanta BravesPASS
  • $15.00Nick Montgomery 2024 Bowman Draft Chrome 1st Prospect Auto Autograph #CPA-NMOPASS
  • $16.492024 NICK MONTGOMERY BOWMAN CHROME DRAFT 1ST ROOKIE RC AUTO CARD # CPA-NMOPASS
  • $19.322024 Bowman Draft Chrome Prospect Nick Montgomery #CPA-NMO Auto 12xsPASS
  • —Topps 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Nick Montgomery Braves Auto #CPA-NMO InsertPASS
  • —2024 Bowman Draft Nick Montgomery Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-NMO BravesPASS
  • —2024 Bowman Chrome NICK MONTGOMERY Rookie 1st Auto Atlanta Braves 🔥PASS

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now