Deal Sniper

Kevin Alcántara

DH · Iowa Cubs · Triple-A · 24.0y · #359 of 7,922 we rate

The player
SOLID

68 out of 100 — our all-round score from the season line, his tools against the level, and how young he is for it.

The market
Untested

15 cards of his are listed and nothing comparable has verifiably sold, so we will not tell you whether the asks are fair.

What to do
Wait

Closest of his is Kevin Alcantara 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1st…. Waiting on sales.

Our take

Solid prospect, untested market.

Kevin Alcántara scores 68 out of 100 (#359 of the 7,922 we score), and the case rests on one thing: young for the level — +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

Nothing of his has verifiably sold in 90 days and there is no benchmark price, so we will not tell you what his cards are worth.

Cards of his are listed and none of them can be priced against a confirmed sale, so any judgment about value today would be a guess dressed as a number.

The thing most likely to be wrong here: swing-and-miss — contact grades 41 on the 20–80 scale (30.4% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

The signal

  • Young for the level

    +2.0y vs his level at Triple-A — younger than 87% of the players there.

  • Contact: well below

    30.4% K — strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • The case is fading

    Baseball momentum 39/100 — the on-field case is fading. Read from his baseball alone — never from what his cards did.

  • Power: plus

    .271 ISO — isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases Better than 90% at his level.

  • Bat-first profile

    DH — there is no defensive value to fall back on, so the bat has to play.

  • Plate discipline: above average

    12.5% BB — walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him Better than 66% at his level.

Why now

No catalyst right now — no promotion, no logged step change, and no measurable move in his card prices. This is a valuation-driven watch rather than a timing one.

What could go wrong

  • Swing-and-miss

    Contact grades 41 on the 20–80 scale (30.4% K). strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Corner-only profile

    DH carries no defensive fallback — if the bat does not play, there is no version of this that works.

  • Nothing has sold

    No confirmed sale of any card of his in 90 days, so nothing on this page can tell you what a fair price is.

What the hobby pays for him

A benchmark is the one standardized card we track a player's market on, so every player's price means the same thing.

Benchmark not yet established — candidates seen, none corroborated by enough sellers. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

The card that matters

A card-quality answer, not a price one. It does not change when a seller changes their mind.

Canonical card not established — We have not assigned him a benchmark card yet, so there is no canonical answer to give. Until one exists, only his individual listings can be judged.

Best value right now

Where the money would go today, which is frequently a lesser card than the one above — or nowhere.

No good entry today

The closest to fair is Topps Bowman Chrome 2020 Kevin Alcantara #CPA-KA 1st Bowman Auto Yankees at $55.17, 305% over the $13.63 that copies of it have confirmed sold in. Nothing of his is currently below its own sold band.

That card at or under $13.63 delivered would be at the bottom of what it has actually sold for.

What would make this a buy

  • Waiting on sales
  • Player not there yet

What is for sale right now

15 cards of his are listed · 0 of the 15 we can judge clear the investment bar. These are the 6 worth looking at, best first; the other 9 are under "The whole live market".

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Kevin Alcantara Gold Refractor Auto /50 1st #CPA-KA Cubs

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 17d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $305.98

    modeled $32.71

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Kevin Alcantara 🔥 2021 1st Bowman Chrome Auto Gold Shimmer #/50

    /50 · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 699d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $354.00

    modeled $32.71

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome Autographs Blue Refractor Kevin Alcantara 1st auto /150

    /150 · raw · condition not stated · listed 386d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    $299.99

    modeled $20.45

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • Topps Bowman Chrome 2020 Kevin Alcantara #CPA-KA 1st Bowman Auto Yankees

    base · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 11d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    $55.17

    sold $13.63

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Sapphire Edition - Auto Kevin Alcantara 1st Bowman Auto #BSPAKA

    Sapphire · raw · condition not stated · takes offers · listed 13d

    Evidence still thin · 2 other things in the way

    Data stale — Last confirmed live 61h ago — beyond the 48h bar. Needs a re-sight before the analysis is current.

    —

    sold $13.63

    PASS

    eBayBreakdown

  • 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Sapphire Auto Kevin Alcantara PSA 9

    Sapphire · PSA 9 · takes offers · listed 390d

    Waiting on sales · 1 other thing in the way

    $309.99

    modeled ~$94.99

    NEEDS EVIDENCE

    eBayBreakdown

What the same money buys today

Nothing of his is worth buying right now. These live cards from other players are the ones we rate as a buy or a watch at the same budget — not a view on Kevin Alcántara, just what the money can do today.

Compared within $27.59–$57.93, about what his own cheapest card costs. Ranked on the price-blind investment score among the 59 live listings we had scored — a read on what we scanned, not on the whole market.

Your research

Private to you. What you are waiting for, and why — so next time you open this page you do not have to remember.

Your target

The price you are waiting for, and why. Private to you.

Create a free account to track this price.

Your notes

Sign in to keep your research — private notes on what you are watching and why.

The evidence

Everything the reading above is built on. Open whichever part you want to check.

The parallel ladder1 version of his cards in psa 9 autos, each priced off its own confirmed sales

Every version of his cards we can see, base to 1/1. Each rung is priced off its own confirmed sales — a rung nothing has verifiably sold at shows no value rather than borrowing a neighbour's.

Showing PSA 9 autos.

NO CLEAR SWEET SPOT

No rung of his has a confirmed sale behind it, so there is no price to compare any step against.

  • SapphireTHIN EVIDENCE

    Listed at $309.99, but nothing confirmed has sold on this rung.

    Sold
    —
    Live
    $309.99 live
    Scarcity
    unnumbered
    Trades
    no sales
    Premium
    —

10 listings sit in a different grade class or auto status and is kept off this ladder — a slabbed sale is not evidence about a raw card.

What he is good atSkills 52 on the 20–80 scale, against 728 hitters at Triple-A

What he is good at

skills overall 52 / 80

On the 20–80 scale every scouting report uses: 50 is average, and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Measured against 728 hitters at Triple-A — measured against real players at the same level right now — not a scout's projection of what he becomes.

  • Contact

    Can he hit it?

    41

    well below · better than 18% at his level

    30.4% K

    strikeout rate, inverted — lower means more bat-to-ball

  • Power

    Can he hit it hard?

    63

    plus · better than 90% at his level

    .271 ISO

    isolated power — slugging minus batting average, so hits that go for extra bases

  • Plate discipline

    Does he pick his pitch?

    54

    above average · better than 66% at his level

    12.5% BB

    walk rate — higher means he makes pitchers come to him

  • Speed

    Can he run?

    49

    average · better than 46% at his level

    10 SB per 600 PA

    stolen bases per full season of plate appearances

  • Production

    Is it showing up in the box score?

    60

    plus · better than 83% at his level · the result, not a skill

    .905 OPS

    on-base plus slugging — the result, which carries the luck as well as the skill

  • Age for the level

    Is he doing it young?

    61

    plus · better than 87% at his level · context, not a skill

    +2.0y vs his level

    years younger than the median player at his level — positive is young for the level

The overall figure averages the 4 skill rows only. The box-score row and the age row are shown but deliberately left out of it — one is the result those skills produced, and the other is not a skill at all.

The argument

skills at the 55th percentile of the cohort, production at the 83th — his results run further ahead of his tools than 90% of the players he is measured against.

The stat line is doing the selling and the skills underneath it are not carrying it. Pay for the line and you are paying for the part that does not repeat.

How this is read: his skills average 55 and his production sits at 83, a gap of -28. That gap on its own means little — an average of several percentiles always sits nearer the middle than a single one — so it is ranked against the same figure computed the same way for the 726 players at his level we hold a full profile for, where it lands at the 10th percentile.

Will he get there?

Strong chance 7.5 / 10

  • already at Triple-A
  • hitting well — 0.905 OPS in 303 PA (not ranked against his level)

This is an ordering score, not a percentage. We hold no outcome data and have run no backtest, so “a 93% chance of reaching the majors” would be a number we made up and you then spent money on. Built on 100% of what it wants to know.

How he is playingThe Triple-A line, and how it compares with last season

Hover any stat to see what it means. How each compares with the 728 other hitters at his level is graded in "What he is good at".

PA

303

AVG

.271

OBP

.363

SLG

.542

OPS

.905

better than 83%

HR

19

SB

5

BB%

12.5

K%

30.4

Is this player getting better?

Hitting better than last season — .819 up to .905 OPS.

Still at Triple-A, the same level as last season.

OPS

.819▲.905

Power

.204▲.271

Walks

11.2%▲12.5%

Strikeouts

29.8%→30.4%

Last season, 430 times at bat. Two seasons that already happened. Nothing here is a prediction.

What his cards have sold forno completed sales logged yet

Real completed sales only — nothing here is an estimate. These come from the scan: it asks eBay about listings it has already seen, and one that ends at a fixed price is recorded as a sale. That builds up over days. You can add one by hand below if you happen to know it, but you are not meant to be the price database.

No sales logged yet. We need at least two to draw a line, and about five spread over a month before the numbers mean much. Add sales you find using the button below.

Look up past sales on eBay
The whole live market15 listed · 15 eBay-verified · 9 not shown above
Listings
15

15 eBay-verified

Lowest seen
$55.17
Median ask
$307.99
Cheapest 1st auto
$55.17
Cheapest numbered 1st auto
$299.99

Latest eBay verification: 13 hours ago.

The other 9 cards

  • $352.002021 Bowman Chrome Kevin Alcantara Auto Blue Refractor /150 1st Bowman SGC 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Kevin Alcantara 2021 BOWMAN CHROME 1st AUTO ORANGE Refractor /25 PSA 9 RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Kevin Alcantara Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-KA Yankees PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Kevin Alcantara Chrome Auto 1st Prospect #CPA-KA Yankees PSA 9/10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —KEVIN ALCANTARA 2021 Bowman Chrome 1st Bowman Speckle Auto /299 #CPA-KA PSA 9NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —2021 Bowman Sapphire Edition Chrome 1st Kevin Alcantara PSA 10 GEM MINT Auto 10NEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —KEVIN ALCANTARA 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome Signed Auto Purple Refractor /250 PSANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —KEVIN ALCANTARA AUTO 1st 2021 Bowman Chrome Autograph Sapphire RC 9 PSANEEDS EVIDENCE
  • —Topps 2021 Bowman Kevin Alcantara #CPA-KA Chrome Prospects Auto PSA 10 RCNEEDS EVIDENCE
What this page is missing1 thing we do not hold for him

What this page is missing

Everything above is built from what we actually hold. These are the gaps, so you know which parts of the argument are thin rather than wondering why a panel is quiet.

  • We do not have a sold price in 90 days — add one and the whole price side fills in.

Worth reading for this player

Newest listings on eBayCheapest right now